February « 2008 « Investment Postcards from Cape Town

The upshot of rapidly rising inflation in Asia could not only result in stronger Asian currencies, but also in reduced Asian investment in Western bond markets and, over the longer term, the need for higher real rates in the West with commensurate implications for lower economic activity. Of immediate consequence: be very careful of overvalued US and EMU government bonds. […]

A message from Government

By Prieur du Plessis, on February 28th, 2008 posted in: Humor

Source: Unknown

South African inflation surprises on the upside

By Prieur du Plessis, on February 28th, 2008 posted in: South Africa

By Kevin Lings

In January 2008, headline CPI inflation rose by a large 1.1% m/m, with the annual rate jumping to 9.3% y/y from 9.0% y/y in December. This was above market expectations for the rate to remain unchanged at 9.0% y/y. CPIX inflation also rose substantially, up 1.2% m/m in January, […]

South African economic growth facing slowdown

By Prieur du Plessis, on February 27th, 2008 posted in: South Africa

By Kevin Lings

In Q4 2007 SA GDP grew by a very robust 5.3% q/q annualised (seasonally adjusted), up from a slightly revised 4.8% q/q in Q3 2007. SA’s Q4 2007 growth rate was well above market expectations for an increase of 4.4%. In fact, none of the analysts expected growth above […]

Believe it or not!

By Prieur du Plessis, on February 27th, 2008 posted in: Humor

Source: Unknown

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US stock market returns – what is in store?

By Prieur du Plessis, on February 27th, 2008 posted in: Equities, Investment, Stocks, Wall Street

Based on a multi-year comparison of the price-earnings (PE) ratios of the S&P 500 Index and the forward real returns, investors should be aware of the fact that the stock market is by historical standards not in cheap territory, arguing for luke-warm long-term returns. As a matter of fact, there is a distinct possibility of some negative returns. […]