2008 May » Investment Postcards from Cape Town

Archive for May, 2008

Monthly Archive

Wednesday, May 14th, 2008

South Africa’s economic outlook: 2008 - 2009

By Cees Bruggemans
After a still strong 2007 in which non-agricultural GDP averaged 5.5% growth, CPIX inflation was a subdued 6%, and the rand averaged 7.05:$, economic prospects for 2008-2009 have undergone an abrupt deterioration.
The main negatives have been electricity disruptions, a further steep climb in CPIX inflation mainly on account of commodity price shocks reducing […]

No Comments » - Posted in South Africa by Prieur du Plessis

Wednesday, May 14th, 2008

Well, it finally happened …

Source: Unknown

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No Comments » - Posted in Humor by Prieur du Plessis

Tuesday, May 13th, 2008

Equity returns - time to go back to the basics

By Shaun le Roux
The markets are difficult. As a result of the tricky economic backdrop of a struggling US economy and spiralling global inflationary pressures, which hit developing countries like SA hardest, most global equity markets have struggled over the last seven months. About the only ray of sunshine within equities internationally has been Resource […]

No Comments » - Posted in South Africa by Prieur du Plessis

Monday, May 12th, 2008

Reuters SA Survey of Economists (April 2008)

The April edition of the Reuters South African Survey of Economists has just been published. (The Econometer is a measure of economic sentiment drawn from a monthly poll of forecasts by leading economists in South Africa and abroad and presented in the form of an index. The index reflects the forecasters’ sentiment for a quarter […]

No Comments » - Posted in South Africa by Prieur du Plessis

Sunday, May 11th, 2008

Words from the Wise: Gone Fishing

I have spent the past week doing a series of presentations with business partner John Mauldin in South Africa. A rather busy schedule, together with poor Internet access, has resulted in my not being able to assimilate all the necessary material for “Words from the Wise”. My apologies for any inconvenience, but rest assured that the normal blogging service will be resumed this week.

No Comments » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Friday, May 9th, 2008

Global stock markets – return and valuation scorecard

Global stock markets have experienced a relatively strong recovery since the middle of March. Although markets in general are still well below previous highs, it makes for interesting reading to reflect on the extent of the correction and subsequent rally.

1 Comment » - Posted in Stocks, Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Wednesday, May 7th, 2008

Purchasing Managers Index rebounds

By Andre Roux
The seasonally adjusted Investec PMI increased to 54.1 in April, after dropping to 43.7 in March. The rebound may be largely ascribed to the unusual timing of Easter during 2008. This would have artificially depressed the March reading while explaining a concomitant sharp increase in April. It is therefore more appropriate to analyse […]

No Comments » - Posted in South Africa by Prieur du Plessis

Tuesday, May 6th, 2008

Stock Markets – Which Way José?: Poll Results

I posted an opinion poll on the outlook for the US stock market a few days ago. In essence, the poll asked whether we were in a bull market, bear market or “muddle-through” market. The results are reported in this post.

4 Comments » - Posted in Stocks, Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Tuesday, May 6th, 2008

Interview: Spotlight on Prieur du Plessis

This post transcribes a recent interview Mert Erkal did with me for the April 2008 edition of Bloghology.

No Comments » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Monday, May 5th, 2008

Don’t get it

By Cees Bruggemans
It has not quite sunk in, except at the SARB.
CPIX is gunning for 12.5%, once past Eskom’s 60% tariff increase. Wage earners and businesses can be expected to desperately defend their real incomes and profit margins.
So give me a 12.5% wage increase, or more moderately, compensate me for the average CPIX inflationof 11% […]