i am familiar with many so called contrarian indicators – put/call ratio, sentiment indicators – and i understand the intuition – if there is too much of the market positioned one way than then only real future direction is the other way – however, i’m not convinced this analysis style is any better than any others, i.e. fundamental, technical, astrology……

are there any studies that show the success of these contrarian indicators over long time periods? are they more likely to work in short periods (3 – 6 mths) or longer periods (1yr+)?

i would imagine that the results would be mixed, much like other analysis styles. i think its difficult to fully gauge, and the market is too dynamic to capture in a snapshot.

from casual observation, i do believe that people take extra pride in considering themselves to be “contrarian”. nobody wants to be like everyone else. however, i think, especially recently, the contrarian approach has been overused. i’ve seen/read too many pm’s and analysts talk about being calm during this crisis, and how you have to be buying when everyone is selling.

is there really blood on the streets? i just bought white shoes…damn.

thanks for your blog, it provides a lot of variety of analysis and opinion.