Words from the Wise: Gone Fishing (in Switzerland)

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I find myself in the Swiss Alps this weekend, spending a few days with my family in the picturesque village of Veysonnaz. While tranquillity reigns and the family delights in having my attention for a change, the bad news for readers is that “Words from the Wise” is taking a break this Sunday.

 

As a substitute for the weekly review, I have obtained the necessary permission to republish a fascinating discussion of Kate Welling (Weeden & Co) with Albert Edwards and James Montier of Société Générale. They are, in a word, skeptics, and at this juncture most deeply skeptical of any and all notions that “the worst is over”. The article will be up on the site by the time you read this message and should give you plenty of food for thought.

The normal blogging service will be resumed later this week as I head back to Cape Town and my usual research resources.

For my American friends, I hope you have had a great fourth of July and enjoyed the fireworks. It would not surprise me if we also have some fireworks in the stock market this week.

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Source: Chip Bok, Slate, July 3, 2008.

 

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1 comment to Words from the Wise: Gone Fishing (in Switzerland)

  • Frank Wordick

    Au contraire, Prieur, I think some readers may be grateful that they won’t have to read about how bad it was last week. In relation to the Welling report, if there is no borrowing demand for money, how come there is a long line at the Fed’s various handout windows, the Fed keeps raising the borrowing limits and the Fed now even allows investment banks to borrow from them? Some people think that the reason there is so much oil being stored in tankers in the Arabian/Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Mexico and probably elsewhere is that producers are speculating and trying to create a real shortage in order to goose the price of oil up even higher. Also, unlike Edwards and Montier seem to think, technical analysis is not only for short term use. I have seen yearly charts that go back to 1952. One last word to the wise, when the majority are seeing black, slashing their wrists and throwing themselves off of cliffs, be very careful about shorting the market. It could be a short term bottom. Note how the market has been creeping up lately even before a long holiday weekend.

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