Comments on: Jeremy Grantham: Meltdown – “I’m officially scared!” http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/ Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog Sun, 29 Jan 2012 22:06:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 By: MF Goldenhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/comment-page-1/#comment-7699 MF Golden Fri, 02 Jan 2009 14:36:14 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/#comment-7699 Eber Terastein might want to retract his rather dismissive statement regarding Jeremy Grantham.'we should not confuse our impending physical dismisal with a crash in the stock market'No, that would be silly now wouldn't it? I'll take Grantham's reality check any day. Eber Terastein might want to retract his rather dismissive statement regarding Jeremy Grantham.

‘we should not confuse our impending physical dismisal with a crash in the stock market’

No, that would be silly now wouldn’t it? I’ll take Grantham’s reality check any day.

]]> By: Jim Hancockhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/comment-page-1/#comment-5229 Jim Hancock Sat, 02 Aug 2008 23:31:47 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/#comment-5229 Most of Jeremy's article I already knew, but found three things interesting:1) UK housing is over 6 standard deviations away from "normal." Is this a 1000 year event! :(2) UK has been over 3 SDs away before and significantly overshot to the downside when deflating. The implications for our housing market are scary.3) I am really surprised he believed the decoupling hype and got emerging markets wrong until now. I guess nobody gets it 100% right all the time. I can surely relate. :)Other than these 3 things the article tended to reinforce what I already thought. It was a nice summary though... Most of Jeremy’s article I already knew, but found three things interesting:

1) UK housing is over 6 standard deviations away from “normal.” Is this a 1000 year event! :(

2) UK has been over 3 SDs away before and significantly overshot to the downside when deflating. The implications for our housing market are scary.

3) I am really surprised he believed the decoupling hype and got emerging markets wrong until now. I guess nobody gets it 100% right all the time. I can surely relate. :)

Other than these 3 things the article tended to reinforce what I already thought. It was a nice summary though…

]]> By: james whiteheadhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/comment-page-1/#comment-5182 james whitehead Fri, 01 Aug 2008 00:10:01 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/#comment-5182 both sides of the economy Pring/Grantham both sides of the economy Pring/Grantham

]]> By: Bryce Wheelerhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/comment-page-1/#comment-5181 Bryce Wheeler Fri, 01 Aug 2008 00:03:30 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/#comment-5181 Granthams article was a wonderfully comprehensive commentary on our current economic status. He certainly did not exaggrate the rough winds still ahead for at least two to four years as to credit problems and balance sheet fiscal problems.As indicative of those who have their heads buried in the sand is Greenspan saying that our current fiscal mess is a "one hundred year event"!!! Ya sure. Greedy Wall Street equity and hedge funds will do many new versions of reckless fiscal engineering again plenty soon causing a similar mess within 15 to 20 years as most all penalties of failure seem to be absolved by the government or st least very much minimized. Those black swans are sure getting common. Granthams article was a wonderfully comprehensive commentary on our current economic status. He certainly did not exaggrate the rough winds still ahead for at least two to four years as to credit problems and balance sheet fiscal problems.

As indicative of those who have their heads buried in the sand is Greenspan saying that our current fiscal mess is a “one hundred year event”!!! Ya sure. Greedy Wall Street equity and hedge funds will do many new versions of reckless fiscal engineering again plenty soon causing a similar mess within 15 to 20 years as most all penalties of failure seem to be absolved by the government or st least very much minimized. Those black swans are sure getting common.

]]> By: Eber Terasteinhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/comment-page-1/#comment-5174 Eber Terastein Thu, 31 Jul 2008 19:58:01 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/#comment-5174 With all due respect, Jeremy Grantham is suffering from a malaise common to persons in our age bracket: the overwhelming apocalyptic feeling that we believe emanates from the markets, when in reality is nothing but the prefiguration of our own mortality.In other words: we should not confuse our impending physical dismisal with a crash in the stock market. Pshycology aside, Mr Grantham's recent disclosed performance comes very short to endorsing any credibility to his increasingly gloomy prediction. But I agree that the performance of his funds is certainly gloomy. With all due respect, Jeremy Grantham is suffering from a malaise common to persons in our age bracket: the overwhelming apocalyptic feeling that we believe emanates from the markets, when in reality is nothing but the prefiguration of our own mortality.

In other words: we should not confuse our impending physical dismisal with a crash in the stock market. Pshycology aside, Mr Grantham’s recent disclosed performance comes very short to endorsing any credibility to his increasingly gloomy prediction. But I agree that the performance of his funds is certainly gloomy.

]]> By: Scotthttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/comment-page-1/#comment-5166 Scott Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:21:49 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/31/jeremy-grantham%e2%80%99s-meltdown-%e2%80%93-i%e2%80%99m-officially-scared/#comment-5166 This was a very interesting report. Its amazing how accurate their asset class forecast was.The chart on UK housing was SCARY! This was a very interesting report.
Its amazing how accurate their asset class forecast was.

The chart on UK housing was SCARY!

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