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> <channel><title>Comments on: Rob Fraim&#8217;s Energy Call</title> <atom:link href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /><link>http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/</link> <description>Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog</description> <lastBuildDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2012 22:06:48 +0000</lastBuildDate> <sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency> <generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1</generator> <item><title>By: Ian Nunn</title><link>http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/comment-page-1/#comment-5724</link> <dc:creator>Ian Nunn</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:35:23 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/#comment-5724</guid> <description>I&#039;m sold on the oversold aspect and on the list of 7 fundamental drivers for oil price.My concern has been the larger market. While oil stocks in a year or two may be seen as incredibly cheap at this price, the issue is how much more downside there might be.Since the credit crisis surfaced 14 months ago, this past weekend has been perhaps the most critical in its unwinding. And George Soros says he believes we&#039;re not half way there yet.We&#039;re sitting on close to a nominal $500 trillion US derivative market. Is it safe? Can it implode? How do you support or unwind something this big if you have to?Central banks just threw another $180 billion in short-term liquidity into the marketplace to staunch the latest hemorrhage. The US Fed in particular must be running out of bullets.At some point, I think they have only their helicopter fleet left. Then watch the price of oil.On the other side, Kevin O&#039;leary speaking on BNN, noted that while company stocks are down in price, most companies outside the financials have strong balance sheets. Donald Coxe notes potash is still selling for $1000 a ton if you can buy any, while the ag stocks have been trashed.So the Fed has signaled it will do anything necessary to support markets. Commodity stocks are a screaming buy. Major financial institutions will survive whatever happens. There will be a stock market next year.I just don&#039;t know how much worse it can or will get before the sunrise on tomorrow. My fear is we are on the brink of something we have never seen before (how do you unwind $500 trillion?). Oh where is my security blanket!?!?</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m sold on the oversold aspect and on the list of 7 fundamental drivers for oil price.</p><p>My concern has been the larger market. While oil stocks in a year or two may be seen as incredibly cheap at this price, the issue is how much more downside there might be.</p><p>Since the credit crisis surfaced 14 months ago, this past weekend has been perhaps the most critical in its unwinding. And George Soros says he believes we&#8217;re not half way there yet.</p><p>We&#8217;re sitting on close to a nominal $500 trillion US derivative market. Is it safe? Can it implode? How do you support or unwind something this big if you have to?</p><p>Central banks just threw another $180 billion in short-term liquidity into the marketplace to staunch the latest hemorrhage. The US Fed in particular must be running out of bullets.</p><p>At some point, I think they have only their helicopter fleet left. Then watch the price of oil.</p><p>On the other side, Kevin O&#8217;leary speaking on BNN, noted that while company stocks are down in price, most companies outside the financials have strong balance sheets. Donald Coxe notes potash is still selling for $1000 a ton if you can buy any, while the ag stocks have been trashed.</p><p>So the Fed has signaled it will do anything necessary to support markets. Commodity stocks are a screaming buy. Major financial institutions will survive whatever happens. There will be a stock market next year.</p><p>I just don&#8217;t know how much worse it can or will get before the sunrise on tomorrow. My fear is we are on the brink of something we have never seen before (how do you unwind $500 trillion?). Oh where is my security blanket!?!?</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: Frank Wordick</title><link>http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/comment-page-1/#comment-5710</link> <dc:creator>Frank Wordick</dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:49:38 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/#comment-5710</guid> <description>Those are the fundamentals. The CEOs of Exxon Mobil and Chevron say they would be happy with an oil price of $50 a barrel. But in the shorter term they may not be all that happy. Sedacca has done a short article based on technicals. He has illustrated what happened to the price of four goods that just experienced a parabolic peak -- that is termination of a bubble. Based on these four cases, which are near mirror images of each other, the target price of West Texas Intermediate is around $15 (no, NOT $50) a barrel. From there, expect a rebound. Eventually, I would expect the price to gradually achieve $25 a barrel. The large majority of energy analysts have said crude oil won&#039;t break $100 a barrel. That we are stuck with astronomically high prices forever. Now they say it won&#039;t break $80. When it does that, they&#039;ll say it won&#039;t break $50 ever following the price down till it finally achieves its downside target. Then they will pat themselves on the back and declare that they have been right all along.</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those are the fundamentals. The CEOs of Exxon Mobil and Chevron say they would be happy with an oil price of $50 a barrel. But in the shorter term they may not be all that happy. Sedacca has done a short article based on technicals. He has illustrated what happened to the price of four goods that just experienced a parabolic peak &#8212; that is termination of a bubble. Based on these four cases, which are near mirror images of each other, the target price of West Texas Intermediate is around $15 (no, NOT $50) a barrel. From there, expect a rebound. Eventually, I would expect the price to gradually achieve $25 a barrel. The large majority of energy analysts have said crude oil won&#8217;t break $100 a barrel. That we are stuck with astronomically high prices forever. Now they say it won&#8217;t break $80. When it does that, they&#8217;ll say it won&#8217;t break $50 ever following the price down till it finally achieves its downside target. Then they will pat themselves on the back and declare that they have been right all along.</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item><title>By: marilyn kim</title><link>http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/comment-page-1/#comment-5704</link> <dc:creator>marilyn kim</dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:03:11 +0000</pubDate> <guid
isPermaLink="false">http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/09/17/rob-fraims-energy-call/#comment-5704</guid> <description>well written overview ... thank you</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>well written overview &#8230; thank you</p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> </channel> </rss>
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