Comments on: Poll du Jour: How deep is the rabbit hole?

By: Ladypilot10

Ladypilot10 — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 02:42:45 +0000

I believe this downturn is more about the
hedge fund mangagers having to liquidate
their postions to raise cash, along with withdrawals and panic selling from the media hype. The ban on short selling should have
been extended until liquidity returned to the markets.
Since markets do not perform rationally,
the onset of a new administration will have
a short-term postive affect in the first
90 days. So I predict that the end of the
year will be a higher number for the DOW.

By: Frank Wordick

Frank Wordick — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 00:59:13 +0000

Prieur, it is possible for the market to go sideways for short periods of time. Therefore, I decline to vote. Also, one has to ask himself this question: If the analysts predict the market will fall 2% and it falls 1% instead, is this any reason for a bout of irrational exuberance? Is this guessing game more important than the reality of the situation. One wonders whether he would be better off ignoring what these Wall Street analysts say and do his own numbers. The improved picture of Roubini is appreciated. Generally, when his visage pops up on the screen I get a similar reaction to when I spy Nosaferatu on the late movie.

By: bacaloui

bacaloui — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 19:02:35 +0000

never trust anyone under 300, go back to 1720 no one can forecast what outcome we will have. if anything life and markets have cycles and this one started late 2006 and should end earliest late 2010 most likely 2012. then we will have a sideways period of 1-3 years due to the new regulations 2014 will start a value trade,then a return to global growth(oil demand= which should last for a 6 year cycle.current concern credit mkts, libor the key to short covering move to stocks starting in november, don’t be fooled until the bkx, vix, and housing indexes recovery

By: Bill

Bill — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 18:24:20 +0000

Another great article! The problem now does, indeed, rest on main street. Unemployment has not to date shown significant downside, but I believe consumer spending is going to be dismal in the near future. Unemployment will then ramp up by spring time.
What will extend the mess is both credit tightening for individuals and the overhead supply of both housing and areas such as autos during 2009.

By: Four Cents

Four Cents — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:12:00 +0000

This mess is not going to go away in a hurry and more downside is a very real possibility. And why on earth should we have any confidence in the governments to solve the problem overnight – they caused it in the first place.

By: The Rookie

The Rookie — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 13:46:01 +0000

The amazing levels of volatility we are experienceing just might push the sell-off to levels noone is expecting at this stage, when combined with the public’s sentiment (have we experienced the true herd effect yet?) when everyone starts bailing out … at least that is if the governments of the world can’t really start to reassure the investing community that everything will be patched back together for the next bubble.

By: SA Youngster

SA Youngster — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 13:45:03 +0000

As someone fairly new to the market (and below 30 years old) this seems like an opportunity to go balls to the wall! If only I could source liquidity… So what if it takes another 2 years to clear the mess? I think; not sure about Dec 2008, but DOW much higher in Dec 2009.

By: The Ace Chase

The Ace Chase — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 13:27:21 +0000

The amount of inflation we can expect to begin to arrive around year end can obscure the results of this poll. Flooding the money markets can cause them to “rise” while actually becoming steadily worth less. This phenomenon should prevail for the next several years.