US rate cut imminent

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Just a quick note to share a graph showing the US Fed funds target rate (red line), together with the actual rate (blue line). In my opinion, it will not come as a surprise to see the FOMC reducing rates by as much as 75 basis points very soon, possible still today. […]






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Rand – worst performing emerging market currency

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By Kevin Lings

Unlike the 2001/2002 SA currency crisis, when the reasons behind the Rand weakness were difficult to ascertain, the cause of the current Rand currency crisis is clearly rooted in the global financial market turmoil and subsequent increase in global risk aversion. The increase in risk aversion is reflected in […]

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Medium Term Budget Policy Statement held few surprises

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By Kevin Lings

The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, presented by the Minister of Finance today held few surprises. The following are key changes worth noting:

• GDP growth forecast have generally been revised down, as expected. This is especially the case for 2009, which drops from 4.2% to 3.0% (see […]

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Albert Edwards: Turning More Bullish

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One of the most popular reports ever published on my blog site, was that of Albert Edwards and James Montier of Société Générale, entitled “Market Fundamentals are Appalling (July 5, 2008). It was therefore with more than cursory interest that I read Andrews’ latest report, arguing that they were increasing their equity exposure significantly for both tactical and strategic reasons. However, longer term they are still expecting the S&P 500 Index to decline to 500 next year “as deep recession bites hard and the market is weighed down by a tsunami of analyst downgrades”. […]






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