Thu 30 Oct 2008
S&P Index from 1825 to 2008
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under Investment, Markets, Money
The graph below is an interesting depiction of the S&P Index’s annual returns since 1825. Of the 184 years 70% were positive and 30% negative. The 2008 year-to-date return is -36.7%, resulting in the red block moving one category to the right since the graph was constructed. The jury is out on whether the bounce will be strong enough to make the year look more respectable.
Please click on the image for a larger graph.
Source: Value Square Asset Management, Yale University.
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Pingback from Historical Distribution of Annual US Market Returns From 1825-Present: 2008 Ouch!! | TickerWatcher.com
January 20th, 2009 at 6:58 am[...] Yale University. I found it via Daily Kos through Bogleheads and Get Rich Slowly. Here is another similar graph. It is not clear if the chart is based on total annual return, or simply a percentage change in [...]
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October 30th, 2008 at 10:42 am
The S&P 500 came into being 1957, S&P came into being 1923, please clarify which index this is based upon.
Interesting insight though
Regards
Bill
October 30th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Bill: My guess is that the S&P 500 Index was used from 1957 onwards and its predecessor S&P Index for the period from 1923 - 1957. I have not been able to establish which data was used for the years prior to 1923.
October 30th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
I did a posting yesterday, the famous nine percent, that dealt with how long-run returns are used in many allocation models.
October 30th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
“The jury is out on whether the bounce will be strong enough to make the year look more respectable”. Are you implying that we might be in a bounce?
Love the graph.
shawn
October 30th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Presumably this is not an accumulation index?
October 31st, 2008 at 5:41 pm
JF: I have tried doing some checks on the numbers and experienced some difficulty in reconciling the stats, but it looks as if the figures are based on price movements and not on total returns.
November 8th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I’m guessing that the data prior to S&P 500 Index was based on Ibbotson’s work with the NYSE. They’ve attempted to go back to 1815. A source for this chart would be nice.
November 8th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Regret: The only source I have is that given at the bottom of the chart, i.e. Value Square Asset Management and Yale University. I have tried contacting both parties, but without success.
November 20th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
William N. Goetzmann, Roger G. Ibbotson, Liang Peng, A new historical database for the NYSE 1815 to 1925: Performance and predictability, Journal of Financial Markets, Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2001, Pages 1-32.
Data source
http://icf.som.yale.edu/nyse