Poll du Jour: Stock market – up, down, or sideways?

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Further to my post of yesterday posing the question “US stock market returns – what is in store?”, let’s shorten the time horizon and consider the outlook for the next few months as opposed to the longer term.

It has become a national pastime (or survival strategy for some?) to try to figure out where in the stock market cycle we are. Adding to the complexity of arriving at an answer is Marc Faber‘s (The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report) viewpoint that “we’ve moved into an environment of very high volatility where you will have up and down moves of like 20% all the time … We can have huge rebounds and then huge downturns again …”

Dear readers, this is where I am going to rely on your collective wisdom and ask you to express your opinion on the direction of the stock market. We will consider three forecast periods and focus specifically on whether the Dow Jones Industrial Index will be up or down from its current level (8,592) by (1) December 31, 2008, (2) June 30, 2009, and (3) December 31, 2009 respectively.

All you need to do is think about this for a short while or “throw the bones”, and provide your answers by clicking on the appropriate button on each of the three poll images below.

The poll will run until 22:00 EST on Sunday, December 7, 2008, whereafter the results will be reported on the blog.

Online Surveys & Market Research

Online Surveys & Market Research

Online Surveys & Market Research


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7 comments to Poll du Jour: Stock market – up, down, or sideways?

  • The surverys are usually interesting, and provide a small sized opion. The only surprise for myself in this expample was the rather weak rebound potential for December 2009. Most of us must believe this to be a very long term economic correction.

  • PdP: This post and some of your more recent missives clearly demonstrate to me that when it comes to market direction even the “best” don’t have a clue. Now this is not a criticism of you at all. I don’t know you and in fact, I really appreciate the effort you put into your blog and to provide the view points and analysis of others. But what bugs me is this: despite all this “insight” by “best of the best” (sorry, I am coughing here), none of the analysis really helps.

    On Sunday alone, your blog may have over 25 experts providing some tidbit of information; yet this seems to be insufficient to make a market “call”. One day you are bullish and the next you are bearish and then the next we are polling the readers or those least in the know (I think or may be not).

    In sum, I really wonder does all this analysis really help or is this just the investment professional justifying their “usefullness” in difficult times.

  • Guy: My position on the primary direction of the market has been bearish since the latter part of last year, and this has been clearly communicated. As also mentioned on many occasions, I am distrustful of rallies, but will nevertheless attempt to alert readers to short-term developments for early clues regarding the primary trend.

    My “Words of the Wise” review presents a compilation of interesting comments and news items, irrespective of specific viewpoints. The same applies to guest contributions. As far as my own views are concerned, a paragraph will always be included in the intro section of “Words” and then be more fully discussed in the numerous other “own posts”.

    I appreciate that this approach is perhaps not everybody’s cup of tea.

  • PdP: Thanks for the reply; my response was not meant to be a personal attack on you or your website or any opinion you may have; as stated, I think you provide a valuable service (which I gladly read). However, with all the information and research provided, there is amazingly no consensus, and of course, this is what makes a market. We clearly have informatin overload, and I often wonder what is the usefulness of such analysis. How is this helping investors? This is a fair question to ask. Everyone can’t be right and most everyone in the market is wrong. There are nuggets in everyone’s analysis (I guess) but the real difficult part is separating the real stuff from the pretenders.

  • Tomorrow we should begin the last big drop, the charts indicate a big one along with a Spike in Gold. All should be over by Monday-Tuesday when we begin the upwards trek, Like Barton says the Mother of all Rallies.


    Eduardo Mirahyes

  • Lynn

    Guy, PdP cherry picks intersting articles that his readers may find interesting, even if they differ from his opinion. It is up to the reader to form their own opinion. I would offer that PdP has spent many years separating the experts from the pretenders.

  • Frank Wordick

    Your openmindedness is appreciated. I like to be able to say what I think and want others to be able to do the same. I also want to be able to read the full spectrum of opinions ranging from raging bull to growling bear. Frankly, I could never cover so much ground without this valuable service that you kindly provide. Unfortunately, some people think that providing such information means you do not have an opinion or that it changes all the time. I especially like to be able to read the juicy bits and not have to plow thru tons of filler. This makes it a lot easier to isolate the wheat from the chaff. A lot of people are unable to do this because they can’t tell the difference. The fact is that 99% of what is offered by commentators and advisors is either irrelevant, useless or wrong. There are a number of financial types who know what they are doing and consequently can provide information and advice worth reading and making decisions on. One other thing. Market direction on a day to day or hour to hour basis is difficult to predict and irrelevant to investors. If you are a trader, you would be better off finding another blogsite. In the longer term, it is clear which way the market is headed, but in order to see this one has to know what he is doing.

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