Comments on: Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (Dec 15 – 21, 2008) http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/ Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog Sun, 29 Jan 2012 22:06:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 By: Credit Crisis Watch: Signs of Progress | The Big Picturehttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7599 Credit Crisis Watch: Signs of Progress | The Big Picture Fri, 26 Dec 2008 12:08:30 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/#comment-7599 [...] move the Fed further towards a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy. (Also see my “Words from the Wise” [...] [...] move the Fed further towards a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy. (Also see my “Words from the Wise” [...]

]]> By: Credit Crisis - Signs of Progress | The Big Picturehttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7598 Credit Crisis - Signs of Progress | The Big Picture Fri, 26 Dec 2008 12:06:54 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/#comment-7598 [...] move the Fed further towards a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy. (Also see my “Words from the Wise” [...] [...] move the Fed further towards a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy. (Also see my “Words from the Wise” [...]

]]> By: Eduardo Mirahyeshttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7543 Eduardo Mirahyes Mon, 22 Dec 2008 02:50:50 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/#comment-7543 Although consensus on the Street maintains the downside is over, we have one more severe plunge just ahead; Likewise economists expect a slow recovery, while just the opposite is in store. As always economists are wrong more than 50% of the time, which makes throwing darts more accurate, while following the crowd will more often lead you off a cliff - just look at Madoff’s investors. The Holiday Rally peaked the day after the Fed cut rates, and with tax selling ahead, compounded by the downside of the transition into the Mother of all Rallies, we very likely have another panic in store. Like those we experienced in the wake of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapses, once we drop below the previous low, buying dries up as panicking investors rush to sell at the low. On the bright side, stocks which are already cheap are going to get much more compelling. What’s more, the Dollar is set to surge concurrent with the rally, compounding foreigners’ market returns with currency appreciation. If you’ve been waiting for the rally’s confirmation to get in, no need to wait, our subscriber’s have reaped gains in the past year equivalent to 3-4 years in the Bull Market. To see the complete report http://www.exceptional-bear.com/13.htmlExpert Timing pays for itself.Eduardo Mirahyes Although consensus on the Street maintains the downside is over, we have one more severe plunge just ahead; Likewise economists expect a slow recovery, while just the opposite is in store. As always economists are wrong more than 50% of the time, which makes throwing darts more accurate, while following the crowd will more often lead you off a cliff – just look at Madoff’s investors. The Holiday Rally peaked the day after the Fed cut rates, and with tax selling ahead, compounded by the downside of the transition into the Mother of all Rallies, we very likely have another panic in store. Like those we experienced in the wake of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapses, once we drop below the previous low, buying dries up as panicking investors rush to sell at the low. On the bright side, stocks which are already cheap are going to get much more compelling. What’s more, the Dollar is set to surge concurrent with the rally, compounding foreigners’ market returns with currency appreciation. If you’ve been waiting for the rally’s confirmation to get in, no need to wait, our subscriber’s have reaped gains in the past year equivalent to 3-4 years in the Bull Market. To see the complete report http://www.exceptional-bear.com/13.html

Expert Timing pays for itself.

Eduardo Mirahyes

]]> By: Ian Nunnhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7542 Ian Nunn Sun, 21 Dec 2008 20:30:29 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/#comment-7542 George Magnus misses the point - but he has widespread company. The reason why government action will not solve the economic problems is they are targeted at the wrong issue.The American consumer is responsible for some 70% of the economy. As David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch documents (http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=VFNAdWAjB14), the consumer is on the ropes. The $8 trillion to date has focused on financial institutions and has largely ignored or bypassed the consumer.Again as Rosenberg notes, any fiscal stimulus may stabilize the economy but will not spark a recovery. The recovery will only happen when Americans have brought down personal debt, increased savings - partly to offset their decimated 401Ks - and have begun to feel more secure in their jobs.This may take years.I think when the stock market finally realizes the recovery isn't about to begin before the end of 2009 at the earliest (http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1428&menugroup=Home), we'll see the final leg down of this bear market. George Magnus misses the point – but he has widespread company. The reason why government action will not solve the economic problems is they are targeted at the wrong issue.

The American consumer is responsible for some 70% of the economy. As David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch documents (http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=VFNAdWAjB14), the consumer is on the ropes. The $8 trillion to date has focused on financial institutions and has largely ignored or bypassed the consumer.

Again as Rosenberg notes, any fiscal stimulus may stabilize the economy but will not spark a recovery. The recovery will only happen when Americans have brought down personal debt, increased savings – partly to offset their decimated 401Ks – and have begun to feel more secure in their jobs.

This may take years.

I think when the stock market finally realizes the recovery isn’t about to begin before the end of 2009 at the earliest (http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1428&menugroup=Home), we’ll see the final leg down of this bear market.

]]> By: Julius Adamshttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7538 Julius Adams Sun, 21 Dec 2008 11:44:00 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/#comment-7538 The comment about markets discounting bad news should be extended to say this past week they are discounting good news as well. The comment about markets discounting bad news should be extended to say this past week they are discounting good news as well.

]]> By: PostOnFire.comhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/comment-page-1/#comment-7536 PostOnFire.com Sun, 21 Dec 2008 09:35:21 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/12/21/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-dec-15-%e2%80%93-21-2008/#comment-7536 <strong>Financial Markets – Cheer or Jeer?...</strong>Another chapter in dealing with the credit crisis and recession was written on Tuesday when the Fed announced a set of measures in a determined attempt to fix the broken credit machine, revive economic activity and stem the deflationary tide. Read all ... Financial Markets – Cheer or Jeer?…

Another chapter in dealing with the credit crisis and recession was written on Tuesday when the Fed announced a set of measures in a determined attempt to fix the broken credit machine, revive economic activity and stem the deflationary tide. Read all …

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