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Video-o-rama: Wishing you well, Mr O
Four-day weeks are notoriously volatile, and the past few days were no exception. But despite a daily dosage of grim economic news and a deterioration in the investment outlook, the headlines were captured by the inauguration of the US’s 44th president, Barack Obama. Commentators were in agreement that Mr O commenced his tenure against the worst economic background in living memory and that his Administration had its work cut out to resurrect the US from its economic malaise (also see “Obama’s honeymoon faces daunting tasks“). As a result, good viewing material was produced with the likes of Warren Buffett, David Swensen, Bill Gross, John Mauldin, John Bogle, Stephen Roach and Joseph Stiglitz in attendance. A few of the more interesting video clips that attracted my attention are shared below. But before we lend our ears to some of the familiar voices deliberating the outlook for the economy and financial markets, spend a few minutes viewing the first two parts of Max Keiser’s delightful new BBC series. Entitled “The Oracle” the videos take a fresh look at the causes and consequences of the financial crisis. BBC News: The oracle with Max Keiser Click here or on the image below for part 1 of the interview. Click here for part 2 of the interview. Source: BBC News (via YouTube), January 16, 2009. NBR: Warren Buffett reminisces about Wall Street Source: NBR, January 22, 2009. Charlie Rose: A conversation with David Swensen Source: Charlie Rose, January 21, 2009. CNBC: Barack Obama’s inaugural address Source: CNBC, January 20, 2009.
CNBC: Warren Buffett – Barack Obama will help the economy, but don’t expect short-term miracles Click here for the article. Source: CNBC, January 18, 2009. John Authers (Financial Times): Without a watchful eye Click here for the article. Source: John Authers, Financial Times, January 20, 2009.
CNBC: Obama & the TARP= Source: CNBC, January 19, 2009. Bloomberg: Gross – $500 billion in deficit spending needed Source: Bloomberg, January 21, 2009. Yahoo Finance: Mauldin says government will keep spending until economy reflates “‘We are in uncharted waters. But the captains of the boats are all Keynesians,’ Mauldin says, meaning they believe government spending is key to fighting the downturn. ‘They will keep spending until the economy reflates.’ “Mauldin, who has been notably bearish on the economy and stocks in his popular Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter, does not believe the government will be successful in turning the economy anytime soon; ‘this recession is going to be the longest in anyone’s memory,’ he writes. ‘It is going to seem like it is never going to end.’ “Still, he does believe the government spending will prevent the most dire economic outcome and that from the rubble of Wall Street a new, private banking system will emerge – even as the government continues to prop up the old, failed model.” Source: Aaron Task, Yahoo Finance, January 16, 2009. Yahoo Finance: John Mauldin’s 2009 outlook – deflation, recession, new market lows Looking out into 2009, Mauldin’s forecast can be summed up in two words: Deflation and Recession – with new lows for the stock market thrown in for good measure. “‘We have a structural program in that deflation has the potential to get some very real traction going forward,’ he writes in his popular Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter. ‘Why? Because not just in the US, but all over the world, we built too much of almost everything. And when demand due to the recession drops as well, prices fall as producers try to stay in business.’ “As discussed in the accompanying video, Mauldin’s baseline scenario features: Deep recession throughout 2009 and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in 2010 and 2011, the earliest he believes housing inventories can be worked off. The potential for a short-term rally in stocks as money redeemed from hedge fund comes back into the market (directly or via other managers) but new lows in the summer as earnings continue to disappoint. The potential for a 1974-like bottom in late 2009 as valuation compression generates selective opportunities. “This outlook, it should be noted, presumes government stimulus prevents a more dire economic outcome.” Source: Aaron Task, Yahoo Finance, January 16, 2009. CNBC: Outlook for the O-Conomy Source: CNBC, January 20, 2009. CNBC: Roach – Worst is ahead for the US Source: CNBC, January 19, 2009. CNBC: Stiglitz – spending versus tax cuts Source: CNBC, January 19, 2009. Financial Times: UK announces new bank bailout Click here for the article. Source: Financial Times, January 19, 2009. CNBC: Richard Branson on UK bailout Source: CNBC, January 19, 2009. CNBC: Trichet hints at further rate cut Source: CNBC, January 21, 2009. John Authers (Financial Times): Thinking the unthinkable for China Click here for the article. Source: John Authers, Financial Times, January 21, 2009. CNBC: Roach – Asia is in big trouble Source: CNBC, January 19, 2009. Financial Times: Barclays Capital’s Larry Kantor says emerging-market crisis looms Source: Financial Times, January 18, 2009.
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