Video-o-rama: Are stock market gains built on solid foundations?

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As stock markets attempt to notch up a sixth consecutive week of gains, the debate as to the longevity of the nascent rally rages on. The featured video material sees Steve Leuthold stating that the S&P 500 Index will rise to 1,100 this year, but Laslo Birinyi taking a bearish stance and advising that the “odds are not with you”. Similarly, Jim Rogers expects more “bottoms”, Nouriel Roubini claims markets to be “way too optimistic” and acclaimed Cazenove chartist Robin Griffiths is looking for a retest of the March 9 lows.

As far as the economic outlook is concerned, Martin Feldstain refers to the “faux recovery”, whereas Wilbur Ross and Abby Cohen comment on the slowdown in the econimic deterioration. Adding to the economic debate and related issues such as bank stress tests, the blame game, Goldman Sachs and commercial real estate, this week’s harvest of videos also features Gary Shilling, Joseph Stiglitz, John Bogle, Muhammad Yunus, Ben Bernanke, Jach Welch, Mohamed El-Erian, Christia Romer, Sam Zell, Richard Bove and Nassim Taleb. A full house indeed!

A real gem is provided by outspoken hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, who proclaimed: “I want to short people like me”. I guess he is not alone.

The selection below kicks off with a new song, “Dow Jones”, from Downsize’s new album “Going out of business”, and concludes with Jon Stewart interviewing William Cohan on his new book, “House of Cards” which details the fall of Bear Stearns.

YouTube: Dow Jones by Downsize
“Dow Jones” is Downsize’s first single off their album “Going Out Of Business”. The video also features Nicole O’Connell.

Source: YouTube, March 2, 2009.

Bloomberg: Shilling favors disclosure of bank stress-test results
“Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., talks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu and Peter Cook about the outlook for public disclosure of results of the “stress-tests” on US banks. Shilling, speaking in New York, also discusses the outlook for the US economy and investment strategy.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 15, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Bank stress tests, explained
“Gauging a bank’s health by seeing how much capital it would need to get through a deep recession seemed a good idea at the time, says WSJ economics editor David Wessel. But things have not gone as planned.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2008.

Bloomberg: Stiglitz sees “big” losses from US bank-rescue program
“Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz talks with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays about the US government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program for banks. Stiglitz, former chief economist at the World Bank and a professor of economics at Columbia University, also discusses the government’s stress tests for banks and the Obama administration’s strategy to bolster banks’ balance sheets to spearhead a recovery in an economy facing its longest recession in at least a quarter century.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 16, 2009.

CNBC: Bogle – crisis: money managers deserve some blame
“Money managers deserve some of the blame for the financial crisis, says Jack Bogle, Vanguard Group CEO.”

Source: CNBC, April 15, 2009.

Credit Suisse: What is the impact of G-20 Summit?
“On April 2, the G-20 announced a $1.1 trillion aid package and other measures aimed at boosting the global economy. Will this finally get us out of the crisis? Giles Keating, head of the Credit Suisse Global Economics and Strategy Group, explains the impact of this summit.”

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Click here for the transcript.

Source: Dorothée Enskog and Joy Bolli, Credit Suisse, April 10, 2009.

Bloomberg: Yunus says loan repayment high during crisis
“Muhammad Yunus, founder and managing director of Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank, talks with Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox about the success of microfinance and the repayment rate of microborrowers during the global recession and financial crisis. Microfinance, or microcredit, shot to prominence in 2006 when Yunus and his Grameen Bank won that year’s Nobel Peace Prize for advancing social and economic development by giving loans to the poor without collateral. Yunus speaks from the World Health Care Congress in Washington.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 15, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Bernanke’s PR offensive
“In an effort to explain the government’s handling of the financial crisis to the American public, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is stepping outside of insider financial circles. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath reports.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2009.

CNBC: Bernanke speaks – The financial crisis
“Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke discusses bank mergers, mortgage crises, the stimulus package and consumer confidence at Morehouse College in Georgia.”

Part 1:

Part 2:

Source: CNBC, April 14, 2009.

CNBC: Larry Summers’ economic outlook
“Lawrence Summers, director of the National Economic Council, tells CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo it’s going to take a long time to get through the economic slowdown.”

Source: CNBC, April 15, 2009.

CBS: Welch & El-Erian – a lagging economy
“Experimenting with policy is inevitable because there is no right way to head to a recovery, says Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco CEO/co-CIO; with Jack Welch, former GE chairman/CEO.”

Source: CNBC, April 16, 2009.

CNBC: Wilbur Ross – economic decline slowing
“Although there is no direction change yet in the economy, the decline in the economy is slowing, says Wilbur Ross, WL Ross & Co. chairman/CEO.”

Source: CNBC, April 14, 2009.

CNBC: Feldstein – faux economic recovery
“Assessing the Obama administration’s plans for economic recovery, with Martin Feldstein, National Bureau of Economic Research president emeritus and CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo.”

Source: CNBC, April 15, 2009.

Charlie Rose: A conversation about the economy with Christia Romer
“Economy Update with Christia Romer, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.”

Source: Charlie Rose, April 14, 2009.

CNBC: Abby Joseph Cohen on the budget deficit
“Discussing the slowdown in the economic deterioration and the growing budget deficit, with Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Global Markets Institute president.”

Source: CNBC, April 13, 2009.

Bloomberg: Zell says commercial real estate values down 30%
“Billionaire investor Samuel Zell, chairman of Equity Group Investments, talks with Bloomberg’s Greg Miles, Betty Liu and Peter Cook about the outlook for ownership changes in the commercial real estate market as property values decline about 30%. Zell also discusses the importance of Citigroup to the global financial system, the residential real estate market and the ‘mistake’ of buying Tribune Co.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 15, 2009.

Bloomberg: Bove says Goldman Sachs earnings growth is sustainable
“Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities, talks with Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox and Margaret Popper about Goldman Sachs Group’s first-quarter earnings report. The New York-based bank today said first-quarter profit exceeded the most optimistic Wall Street estimates. Bove also discusses Goldman’s plans to raise $5 billion through a common stock offering to repay US government rescue funds.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 13, 2009.

Financial Times: Dominic Konstam on China and US treasuries
“Head of interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse, says that as China reduces its holdings of US assets, ‘no other foreign investor is going to fill that void to the same extent. And it’s inevitable that the household and domestic sector in the US will need to own these securities on their balance sheet.'”

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Source: Financial Times, April 12, 2009.

Citywire: Hugh Hendry – “I want to short people like me”
In Part 1 the Eclectica co-founder explains why he is sticking to his guns despite having ‘my tail between my legs’ after the recent banking sector rally, and why the dollar could approach parity with the euro.

In Part 2 the outspoken hedge fund manager argues that the majority of his peers “have no future”, and explains his fear that tighter financial regulation will mean two decades of deflation.

Source: Citywire, March 26, 2009.

Bloomberg: Taleb says private equity, stock markets are Ponzi-like
“Nassim Taleb, author of ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable’, talks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker about his suggestions for changes to US financial markets. Taleb also discusses the Obama administration’s response to the financial crisis and the regulation of banking.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 15, 2009.

Bloomberg: Birinyi cautions stock buyers – “odds are not with you”
“Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, talks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu about his investment strategy and the performance of the equity market. Birinyi, speaking from Westport, Connecticut, also discusses the banking industry.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 13, 2009.

Bloomberg: Jim Rogers says investors should expect more “bottoms”
“Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg’s Paul Gordon, Bernard Lo and Mike Firn about the outlook for global stocks. Rogers, speaking from Singapore, also discusses his investment strategy for commodities, bonds and real estate markets.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 13, 2009.

Global and Mail: Roubini – markets “way too optimistic”

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Click here for the article.

Source: Global and Mail, April 8, 2009.

Bloomberg: Steve Leuthold says S&P 500 will rise to 1,100 this year
“Steve Leuthold, chairman of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, talks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker about the outlook for the US economy and stock market. Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74% last year betting against US stocks, also discusses inflation risk from US government efforts to end the recession and his investment strategy.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 14, 2009.

CNBC: Robin Griffiths – Footsie to retest lows
“The FTSE 100 is experiencing a bear-market rally, which does not look like a new bull market, Robin Griffiths from Cazenove Capital told CNBC, adding that the index will retest its lows.”

Source: CNBC, April 15, 2009.

Fox Business: Tom Lyden (ETF Trends) – time to invest in emerging markets?

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Source: Fox Business, April 10, 2009.

YouTube: Local currencies on the rise!
“BJ Lawson (who was called ‘Ron Paul Jr.’ during his campaign for Congress) joined Susan Witt on Fox Business to talk about their interesting work with local currencies, the Plenty and the BerkShare.”

Source: YouTube, April 10, 2009.

CNBC: Has China’s economy bottomed?
“We are probably seeing the trough in the Chinese economy, believes Jan Friederich, senior economist, global forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He offers his analysis to CNBC’s Oriel Morrison.”

Source: CNBC, April 16, 2009.

CNBC: State of Singapore’s economy
“The Singapore dollar’s sustainability is doubtful, says Jimmy Koh, head of economies, treasury research at UOB. He speaks to Michael Yoshikami of YCMNET Advisors & CNBC’s Maura Fogarty about the record GDP fall of the country.”

Source: CNBC, April 14, 2009.

CNBC: Impact of political unrest on Thai markets
“Discussing how the political unrest in Thailand will impact investor sentiment, with Nicholas Kwan, regional head of research, Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, speaking with CNBC’s Karen Tso.”

Source: CNBC, April 15, 2009.

Jon Stewart (The Daily Show): Interview with William Cohan on Bear Stearns
Author William Cohan talks about his new book, “House of Cards” which details the fall of Bear Stearns. He explains the difference between a Ponzi scheme and an investment bank.

Source: Jon Stewart, The Daily Show, April 9, 2009.

 

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