Wed 22 Apr 2009
Economic rate of decline slowing down?
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under Economy, Investment, Markets, Money
“Green shoots”, “glimmer of hope” and “light at the end of the tunnel” are three phrases economists have recently started bandying around, referring to a slowing in the deterioration of a number of economic variables, i.e. that the rate of global economic deterioration is bottoming out. This is also referred to as the so-called second derivative of growth turning positive; continuing economic contraction is the first, negative, derivative.
These claims were validated by Goldman Sachs’s Diffusion Index (a composite of 34 economic data points from across the globe) that increased to above 50 in February and March, indicating improvement.
The results of two surveys released over the past two days also seem to back up the “green shoots” claims.
Firstly, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, considering the outlook six months hence, improved again in April to 13.0 from -3.5 in March. This was the sixth monthly gain and the first time the index has turned positive since July 2007. “Investors are growing confident that the worst of the financial crisis and recession has passed,” said Moody’s Economy.com. This ZEW Indicator has not been a bad leading indicator in the past.
Secondly, in its latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World Moody’s Economy.com reports that global business “has taken on a slightly better hue in recent weeks”. The Survey highlights that “broad assessments of current and prospective conditions have moved up measurably since the beginning of the year. It is premature to conclude that businesses are turning measurably more upbeat, but recent survey results are somewhat encouraging.”
More signals are required, but it would seem that some measures have started pointing in the direction of an economic recovery. However, the big question mark remains the magnitude and duration of the recovery.
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Pingback from Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was 4.26.09 | The Big Picture
April 26th, 2009 at 8:29 pm[...] a further perspective on the outlook for the global economy, also read my posts “Economic rate of decline slowing down?“, “Goldman raises China’s growth forecasts” and “Chinese economy on [...]
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April 23rd, 2009 at 2:59 am
Enjoy the fishing. Remember, a bad day of fishing is still better than a good day at work…
April 23rd, 2009 at 3:14 am
Somehow I doubt that the green color we see in the market has anything to do with growth. More like an indication that it has gone putrid. As for the “glimmer of hope” argument I offer in riposte “grasping at straws” and “hope springs eternal”. Finally, “the light at the end of the tunnel” is without any real doubt the proverbial oncoming train. We have got another mortgage reset avalache to work thru that will last 2 years, a commercial property collapse and an insurance company debacle that will rival that of the big banks. Goldman Sachs! Who would believe anything that those shysters say. Goldie changed its reporting year so that the month of December 2008 conveniently dropped thru the cracks in the financial system. December 2008 is the month in which Goldie slyly deposited all its humongous losses from subprime disasters, etc. The ZEW indicator has NO CORRELATION with GDP, which is expected to drop by 6% this year. One has to be very careful about confidence surveys and the indicators derived from them. Most have NO CORRELATION WHATSOEVER with behavior. Wait for the two other reports coming out later this week from Europe, which will give you a better idea of what is going on there.