Video-o-rama: Investors “look past the valley”

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As the financial markets await the bank stress test results in the US, a potpourri of video clips was produced. Although the discussions were varied, a golden thread prevailed: the duration of the financial crisis and the economic recession, and whether stock markets have hit bottom.

Needless to say, the plight of the beleaguered automakers and fears of an escalation in the number of swine flu cases also captured the attention of battle-weary investors. However, the S&P 500 Index rallied to a gain of 9.4% for April – representing its best monthly advance since March 2000 – and US Treasury yields jumped to levels last seen in November as investors “looked past the valley”.

Commentators featured on camera in this post include Simon Johnson, Michael Perino, Jim Walker, Steve Forbes, Christopher Whalen, Joseph Stiglitz, Marc Faber, Bill Ackman, Paul Kasriel, James Galbraith, Paul Volcker, Sheila Bair, Mark Mobius, Robin Griffiths and Jim Rogers.

The selection kicks off with a recession singalong – a Walt Handelsman animation entitled “Worst Slide Story”, and concludes with an interesting visualization of President Obama’s planned budget cuts.

Walt Handelsman: Animation – recession singalong!
“The classic ‘West Side Story’ is enjoying its Broadway revival. Now comes the remix, ‘Worst Slide Story’.”

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Source: Walt Handelsman, Newsday, April 13, 2009.

CNBC: How swine flu spreads in humans
“A deadly outbreak of swine flu has killed more than 100 people in Mexico, and infections have been reported around the world. Malik Peiris, professor at University of Hong Kong, spoke to CNBC about how the flu can spread.”

Source: CNBC, April 27, 2009.

Bloomberg: Jim Rogers says flu may be “disaster in weak economy”
“Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu and Peter Cook about the potential impact of swine flu on the global economy.

Rogers, author of ‘A Gift to My Children’, also discusses the restructuring efforts at US automakers, ‘short’ strategy and investment opportunities in commodities. He speaks from Singapore.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April 28, 2009.

Bill Moyers (PBS): Conversation with Simon Johnson and Michael Perino
“Bill Moyers speaks with economist Simon Johnson and Ferdinand Pecora biographer and legal scholar Michael Perino. Johnson is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a professor at MIT Sloan School of Management, and Perino is a professor of law at St. John’s University and has been an advisor to the Securities and Exchange Commission.”

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Source: Bill Moyers Journal, PBS, April 24, 2009.

CNBC: Financial crisis still has long way to go
“Hold on to your horses as the global financial crisis still has a long way to go, says Jim Walker, founder & CEO at Asianomics. He tells CNBC’s Martin Soong that we are probably in the horizontal part of a L-shaped recession.”

Source: CNBC, April 29, 2009.

Fox Business: Forbes – recovery hinges on credit market

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Source: Fox Business, April 27, 2009.

CNBC: Christopher Whalen on financial fallout from stress tests
“What the stress test results will mean for financials going forward, with Paul Miller, FBR Capital Markets, and Christopher Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics.”

Source: CNBC, April 27, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Can America handle the truth?
“Evan Newmark and Dennis Berman discuss whether Americans can swallow ‘the truth’, especially in relation to the results of the bank-stress tests.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2008.

Credit Suisse: Joseph Stiglitz calls for US bank nationalization
“Leading economist and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz advocated the nationalization of troubled US banks and raised concerns about the American government’s efforts to stimulate the economy, in the keynote economic session at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference.

“Addressing a record crowd of delegates, Stiglitz said the current global downturn had been worse than he had expected. ‘The one ray of optimism in this really dark cloud is that China and India look like they’re going to continue to grow, although somewhat slower than they have been growing,’ he said.

“Stiglitz said the US will play a critical role in the recovery of the world economy, and that the key issues would be consumption growth – which until now had been led by ‘unbridled borrowing – and the restructuring of the financial institutions. ‘(Americans were told) if you don’t have income, don’t let it bother you, keep spending, and we lent them money and they kept borrowing and the debts grew,’ he said.”

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Source: Credit Suisse, April 17, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Was John Thain a scapegoat?
“In an interview with WSJ’s Susanne Craig, former Merrill Lynch Chief Executive John Thain told her he was unfairly scapegoated for the growing problems of Bank of America.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2009.

CNBC: GM’s third restructuring plan
“General Motors CEO Fritz Henderson discusses the automaker’s third restructuring plan since December, with CNBC’s Phil Lebeau.”

Source: CNBC, April 27, 2009.

Financial Times: Wilbur Ross on Detroit and the economy
“Wilbur Ross, chief executive and chairman of WL Ross & Co, talks to Chrystia Freeland, FT’s US managing editor, about the possible bankruptcy of GM, the fate of the auto suppliers and the future ownership structure of GM. He also discusses the treatment of bank bondholders, the US government’s handling of the economic crisis and the prospects for recovery this year.”

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Source: Financial Times, April 30, 2009.

Bloomberg: Faber says GM’s debt offering right way to restructuring
“Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, talks about General Motors Corp’s offer to exchange $27 billion of bondholder claims for equity. Faber also discusses the Federal Reserve’s money printing efforts to fight economic crises.”

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Source: Bloomberg, April  27, 2009.

CNBC: Global meeting of the minds
“Insight on the world leaders convening in Washington over the weekend for the G-7 meeting, with Dominique Strauss-Khan, IMF managing director, and John Sununu, former senator (R-NH).”

Source: CNBC, April 27, 2009.

Charlie Rose: A conversation about the economy
“A conversation about the economy with Bill Ackman, major investor and hedge fund manager of Pershing Square Capital Management LP, Kate Kelly of The Wall Street Journal, Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times and Joseph Stiglitz, economist and a member of Columbia University faculty.”

Source: Charlie Rose, April 24, 2009.

Paul Kasriel (Northern Trust): Coming out of the downturn
“Paul Kasriel, Northern Trust’s Chief Economist, discusses the current economic climate and the potential impact on market consumption during any recovery.”

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Source: Paul Kasriel, Northern Trust, April 30, 2009.

Fox Business: Galbraith – economic strings attached?
“Professor James Galbraith on his concerns about the economic turnaround. He makes four essential points about the expansion yet to come.”

Source: Fox Business, April 29, 2009.

Bloomberg: Volcker – economy leveling off, stimulus not needed
“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker talks with Judy Woodruff about the outlook for the US economy.”

Source: Bloomberg (via YouTube), April 29, 2009.

CNBC: Bair Speaks
“CNBC’s Trish Regan talks about banks and the economy with FDIC Chair Sheila Bair.”

Source: CNBC, April 28, 2009.

CBS: Shrinking necessities
“A new study finds that Americans are downsizing their list of things considered essential. Charles Osgood reports.”

Source: CBS, April 27, 2009.

Barron’s: Big money poll – the long view
“After the worst stretch for stocks in decades, America’s money managers say they’re bullish. But do they really believe it? Based on the results of our latest Big Money poll, the pros are hoping for the best, but … hold on! Aren’t those fresh bear tracks in the mud?

Click here for the article.

Source: Jack Willoughby, Barron’s, April 27, 2009.

Financial Times: Have markets hit bottom?
“Have markets reached a bottom? How the market participants affect the direction of stock markets? Michael Mauboussin, an expert in the wisdom of crowds theories, talks to John Authers about market timing and understanding how different players change sentiment.”

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Source: Financial Times, April 28, 2009.

Money Control: Mark Mobius – emerging markets on cusp of next big bull run

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Click here for the article.

Source: Money Control, April 27, 2009.

John Authers (Financial Times): Deflating the earnings bubble
“The bad news is that shares are predicting a 50% fall in non-financial companies’ earnings. The good news is that this is already priced in.”

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Click here for the article.

Source: John Authers, Financial Times, April 27, 2009.

CNBC: Hugh Hendry – downturn still underway
“The recent rise in stocks and talk about green shoots in the markets are optimistic assumptions, as the world downturn ‘still has a way to run’, Hugh Hendry, CIO at Eclectica, told CNBC.”

Source: CNBC, April 28, 2009.

CNBC: Charts – Asia signals new bull market
“While western stock indexes struggle to rally in an overall bear market, their emerging counterparts are set to enjoy the real thing, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC.”

Source: CNBC, April 27, 2009.

John Authers (Financial Times): Obama’s first 100 days
John Authers puts Obama’s first 100 days into context, looking at equity markets, volatility and overall economic sentiment.”

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Click here for the article.

Source: John Authers, Financial Times, April 28, 2009.

YouTube: Obama budget cuts visualization
“How much is the $100 million dollars in budget cuts compared to the federal budget as a whole? This video imagines the budget as $100 in pennies to provide the answer.”

Source: YouTube, April 24, 2009.

 

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