Taylor’s Rule

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By Cees Bruggemans

Estimating where interest rates should be.

According to Taylor’s Rule, the Prime Interest Rates should currently be :

Comment :  With the prime interest rate still lingering at 12%, the SARB is currently only 1.5% behind what a rough Taylor estimate suggests should be the interest […]

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Equity Risk Premium In A Rising Interest Rate Environment
Anticipating The Rate Hike
Read more on Interest Rates, Inflation at Wikinvest
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Gold bullion: regaining its shine?

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Gold bullion solidly outperformed stock markets for the bulk of the equity bear market that commenced in October 2007. However, as investors waved safe havens goodbye and embraced risky assets since early March, the yellow metal lost its luster. This post discusses whether one should read anything into its rise of 3.6% over the past two days to above $900? Is gold coming back to life? […]

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Has Gold & Silver Finally Bottomed?
Gold Price Gravitating Lower Towards $1000
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Jeremy Grantham: The last hurrah and seven lean years

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Jeremy Grantham has just published his keenly awaited quarterly newsletter, entitled “The last hurrah and seven lean years”. Grantham covers a lot of thought-provoking ground in this letter, but focuses mostly on where to invest now. This is must-read material. […]

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Recessionary momentum rapidly losing steam

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By Cees Bruggemans

The big hit to output lies already far behind us, being heavily concentrated in 4Q2008.

In contrast, 1Q2009 saw already cyclical repair as the recessionary momentum lost steam, globally and locally.

This is perhaps not yet conventional wisdom, but given time hearts and minds will follow.

More on this topic (What's this?)
Dual Momentum August Update
The Reality Of Momentum
The Momentum Continues
Read more on Momentum at Wikinvest
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Stress test results …

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Source: Tom Toles, The Washington Post, may 6, 2009.

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