Prieur’s readings

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Conor Clarke (The Atlantic): An interview with Paul Samuelson, part one, June 17, 2009.

• Mohamed El-Erian (PIMCO): Beware of the “business as usual” mindset, June 2009.
We are facing a world of lower growth and accelerated country realignments. Policy experimentation will remain the norm for much longer than most expect. All of this constitutes an inherent part of the world’s bumpy journey to a new normal. It is a reality that also impacts key elements of successful investment management – in particular, asset allocation, manager selection and risk management. It calls for some critical re-tooling of mindsets, institutions and approaches.

• George Soros (Financial Times): The three steps to financial reform, June 16, 2009.
While markets are imperfect, regulators are even more so. Not only are they human, they are also bureaucratic and subject to political influences, therefore regulations should be kept to a minimum.

• Martin Wolf (Financial Times): The recession tracks the Great Depression, June 16, 2009.
The great likelihood is that the world economy will need aggressive monetary and fiscal policies far longer than many believe. That is going to be make policymakers – and investors – nervous.

• Paul Sandison, Concepts, paradigms, politics and pedagogy – the political-economic crisis of our age, June 17, 2009

• Kenneth Rogoff (Financial Times): America should also look to its fiscal health, June 17, 2009.
Higher taxes to pay for healthcare are likely to reduce US growth, making it far more difficult to escape the debt trap.

• Martin Baily and Douglas Elliott (Brookings): The US financial and economic crisis: Where does it stand and where do we go from here?, June 2009.
The US appears to be reaching a turning point for both the real economy and for the financial crisis which triggered this severe recession. This is good news indeed coming after many months of vile news, but we must keep firmly in mind the extreme difficulty of predicting the economy and the financial markets during this crisis. Consensus forecasts have been wrong repeatedly; unexpected, even unprecedented, events have followed close on the heels of one another. Cautious optimism should be the order of the day. We fear that the recent reactions of the financial markets and of some analysts carry too much of the optimism without recognizing enough of the uncertainty.

• Andy Harless (Employment, Interest & Money): A long way to inflation, June 16, 2009.
Most of the media seem to have interpreted today’s lower-than-expected increase in the producer price index as good news. I’m not so sure. If you were worried that 5% inflation was just around the corner, then naturally you will have felt relief. Personally, I was more worried about deflation, and I still am.

• Mark Gimein (Big Money): Swan song, June 15, 2009.
First he was very famous, now he’s very rich. But Nassim Taleb is still wrong.

• David Pilling (Financial Times): Japan is losing patience with politics-as-usual, June 17, 2009.
Since 1990, the Liberal Democratic party has persevered with its well-honed brand of money politics without one ingredient: money.

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