Mon 22 Jun 2009
Technical talk: Seasonal trends less bullish
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under Investment, Markets, Money
The comments below were provided by Kevin Lane of Fusion IQ.
As seen in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index bounced off its uptrend line near 900 a few sessions ago and managed a slight rally. However, that rally stalled at what is now new minor resistance near 925. So the S&P 500 is currently between an uptrend line and resistance. Above 925 the rally has a chance to resume, whereas a move below 900 will result in the current correction deepening.
The next stop down on any break of 900 would be the 875-880 support zone. This is a more critical support area and the area the S&P definitely needs to hold. Any break below that and the S&P 500 would see a much deeper correction.
Typically, as we enter the mid- to latter summer, seasonal trends also tend to become less bullish as the summer rally is replaced by the summer doldrums. So, after an S&P 500 rally that went up 43.41 % from its trough to the recent peak, to expect a corrective wave during the seasonally weak mid- to late summer is not a far stretch.
At this point in the game we would suggest tightening up stop-loss levels and being less patient with pullbacks in names on the long side that are not performing well.
Source: Kevin Lane, Fusion IQ, June 22, 2009.



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