Comments on: Technical talk: S&P 500 – expect retest sequence http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/07/08/technical-talk-sp-500-%e2%80%93-expect-retest-sequence/ Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog Sun, 29 Jan 2012 22:06:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 By: Frank Whttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/07/08/technical-talk-sp-500-%e2%80%93-expect-retest-sequence/comment-page-1/#comment-13902 Frank W Mon, 13 Jul 2009 06:28:00 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/?p=8345#comment-13902 Maybe so, Thomas, but a number of very cluey analysts think the bottom of the market is around 400 on the S&P 500. Actually, there is potential for the bottom to be much lower than 400. This financial crisis is, in my opinion, far from over. Indeed, it has hardly begun. The banks and insurance companies that are too big to fail are still carrying tons of packaged loan garbage, and here we are going into another two or more years of mortgage resets. Maybe so, Thomas, but a number of very cluey analysts think the bottom of the market is around 400 on the S&P 500. Actually, there is potential for the bottom to be much lower than 400. This financial crisis is, in my opinion, far from over. Indeed, it has hardly begun. The banks and insurance companies that are too big to fail are still carrying tons of packaged loan garbage, and here we are going into another two or more years of mortgage resets.

]]> By: Thomas Bachhttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/07/08/technical-talk-sp-500-%e2%80%93-expect-retest-sequence/comment-page-1/#comment-13781 Thomas Bach Thu, 09 Jul 2009 02:01:47 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/?p=8345#comment-13781 I am sorry, but Kevin’s (and most other trader’s) almost religious believe in "re-testing" is silly.This recession (credit crisis and financial panic) is much more similar to The Panic of 1907 than to 2001 (post the Dot-com bubble and 9/11) recession.(The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis that occurred in the United States when the New York Stock Exchange fell close to 60% from its peak the previous year (very similar to 2008). Panic occurred, as this was during a time of economic recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The 1907 panic eventually spread throughout the nation when many state and local banks and businesses entered into bankruptcy. Primary causes of the run include a retraction of market liquidity by a number of New York City banks and loss of confidence.)There were NO re-tests in 1908 or in 1909.Why should it be different in 2009? "So, to expect things would be different this time doesn’t make much sense."http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/Dow_1904_to_1909.png I am sorry, but Kevin’s (and most other trader’s) almost religious believe in “re-testing” is silly.

This recession (credit crisis and financial panic) is much more similar to The Panic of 1907 than to 2001 (post the Dot-com bubble and 9/11) recession.

(The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers’ Panic, was a financial crisis that occurred in the United States when the New York Stock Exchange fell close to 60% from its peak the previous year (very similar to 2008). Panic occurred, as this was during a time of economic recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The 1907 panic eventually spread throughout the nation when many state and local banks and businesses entered into bankruptcy. Primary causes of the run include a retraction of market liquidity by a number of New York City banks and loss of confidence.)

There were NO re-tests in 1908 or in 1909.

Why should it be different in 2009?
“So, to expect things would be different this time doesn’t make much sense.”

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/Dow_1904_to_1909.png

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