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John Silvia – recovery ahead, inflation too By Prieur du Plessis, on August 7th, 2009 posted in: Investment, Markets, Money  2 people had their say - chime in!
Wells Fargo chief economist John Silvia says the economy is rebounding, but he is concerned about inflation. “I think it (the recession) is winding down,” he told Moneynews’s Dan Mangru in an exclusive interview. “I think we’re in an economic recovery. We’ll know that when we see some of the GDP numbers for next quarter.” The second-quarter GDP figures showed “a pick-up in domestic demand across a lot of different sectors,” Silvia says. “It’s still fairly weak in some (sectors), but especially there’s some momentum going forward, and that was absolutely key.” Click here or on the video below to view the interview.
Click here for the full article. Source: Dan Weil, Moneynews.com, August 6, 2009.
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This guy is just talking his book.
He quotes the Case-Shiller price index, but doesn’t note the seasonal factors …prices rise in the summer …and fall in the winter. Seasonally adjusted C-S is still negative. Since he is the Chief Economist for a major mortgage lender he must know this …so I can only conclude that he is lying.
So let me summarize the interview …higher unemployment and inflation ahead …but the recession will end soon and housing has probably bottomed. Brilliant.
It is listening to clowns like this that got us into this mess.
If these guys are so smart why don’t they pay back TARP and mark to market? Oh yeah, they are technically insolvent.
Here is a quote from Richard Russel on 8/4:
“If an “expert” wants a little publicity, he can make some damn fool statement that can’t be verified. If the statement is bullish and it proves to be wrong, well, nobody will complain. Wall Street’s business is distributing merchandise to the public, and every optimistic statement or bullish prediction helps. So the Street never complains when bullish predictions don’t pan out. At least the “expert” ventured a guess, and so what if he proves to be wrong as he usually will be? Nobody’s keeping tabs on him or her.”
He was referring to Greenspan, but if the shoe fits…