Prieur’s readings (November 4, 2009)
This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.
• Michael Kahn (Barron’s): Setting free the bears, November 2, 2009.
The stock market’s astounding run from its March lows has finally run into a real ceiling. After outpacing most, if not all, post bear-market rallies over the past century the inevitable is finally here. But is it part of another correction or something more? The urgency of the sell-off suggests the latter. That said, I don’t see the danger of the market testing its March lows any time soon.
• Charles Githler (MoneyShow.com): Former bears’ take on the market’s future, October 18, 2009.
Are we headed for a major correction, or even worse: a resumption of the bear market?What “the best” (former bears) are telling us now …
• Thao Hua (Pensions & Investments): A whole new world for emerging markets, November 2, 2009.
Pension fund executives around the world are putting their faith – and assets – into emerging markets to provide more investment bang for the buck. But some consultants and money managers believe pension funds still have a long way to go and need to increase those allocations closer to 35% of total assets – or roughly the weighting of emerging markets in the global economy – from the current allocation of about 5% or less for the average fund.
• Anoop Singh (iMFdirect): The puzzle of Asia’s rapid rebound, November 2, 2009.
Now here’s the puzzle: how is it that Asia has rebounded sooner and more strongly than the rest of the globe from the economic slump when the region is so heavily dependent on exports for its growth?
• CNBC-TV18: Chances of a deeper correction are rising: Chris Wood, November 3, 2009.
Global equities have surged about 70% in six months on hopes of a rebound in the US economy. However, with valuations getting stretched, central banks raising the drumbeat on policy tightening, and fear that governments may withdraw their stimulus measures, the road ahead looks bleak for global equities. Chris Wood, Equity Strategist, CLSA, says the chances of a deeper correction in global equities are rising.
• Bradley Keoun (Bloomberg): Pandit “near death” hoard signals lower bank profits, November 2, 2009.
Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are hoarding cash as if another crisis were on the way.
• Martin Wolf (Financial Times): Private behaviour will shape our path to fiscal stability, November 3, 2009.
It is idiotic to discuss the reduction of the huge fiscal deficits, without considering the nature of the offsetting adjustments in the private and external sectors. Some adjustments would be desirable, but others would be extremely perilous.
• John Kay (Financial Times): Chaotic evolution defines the market economy, November 3, 2009.
Markets are not a well-oiled machine: they are a constantly changing, adaptive biological system.
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