John Riding on the US economy, inflation and unemployment

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John Riding, chief economist of RDQ Economics in New York, sits down with Michael Mackenzie, US markets correspondent of the Financial Times, to discuss Fed policy, inflation versus deflation and the US employment outlook.

Part 1: On Fed policy
Riding says the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until 2011 at the earliest. He says an extended period of easy monetary policy is laying the ground for the next bubble and that the Fed itself is engaged in the biggest carry trade out there through its policy of quantitative easing.

Click here or on the image below to view Part 1 of the interview.


Part 2: On the inflation versus deflation debate
Riding says the debate between inflation and disinflation or potentially even deflation will be settled on the side of inflation, though it may take two or three years to come through.

Click here to view Part 2 of the interview.

Part 3: On the US employment outlook
Riding says should current labor trends continue, the US economy is about 20 weeks away from starting to see the emergence of job creation. The actual rate of unemployment is 17.5%, not the official rate of 10.2%.

Click here to view Part 3 of the interview.

Source: Michael Mackenzie, Financial Times (here, here and here), November 13, 2009.

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