Recession is over, but has the recovery begun?

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On the topic of the magnitude of the economic recovery, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, provided the following interesting snippet:

“The recession in the US may be over, but what sort of recovery lies ahead remains in question. All we can say is that when looking at what is normal in the context of a post-recession rebound during the post-WWII era, the first quarter of growth is closer to 7.3% at an annual rate, not 2.8% as we just saw in the latest real GDP estimate – the median was 6.3%. To think that with the massive amount of stimulus – without it, growth would have flirted with 0% – this first quarter of positive growth was basically one-third of what is typical really says something.”

Food for thought indeed.


Source: David Rosenberg, Gluskin, Sheff & Associates – Breakfast with Dave, November 26, 2009.

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