Reuters Survey of Economists

By Prieur du Plessis, on January 25th, 2010 posted in: South Africa

The Reuters Econometer, an index of six weighted indicators that looks two years on fell to 231,91 in December compared with 235,89 in November. Confidence in the South African economy fell, on concern that interest rates will start rising in late 2010 and economic growth will slow faintly in Q4. Hosting of the 2010 Soccer World Cup is expected to help boost growth in Q2 and Q3, thereafter the economy is likely to slow. The economy is seen growing by 2.38% in 2010 and then quickening to 3.40% in 2011. The outlook to inflation is steady, however a hazard to the outlook is power costs. Eskom is pushing for a 35% a year increase in tariffs for the next three years.

The December edition of the Reuters South African Survey of Economists has just been published. (The Reuters Econometer is a measure of economic sentiment drawn from a monthly poll of forecasts by leading economists in South Africa and abroad and presented in the form an index). The weightings used in the index are: GDP growth – 25%; CPIX inflation – 20%; Producer Price Inflation – 5%; Prime Interest Rate – 20%; 10-year bond yield – 5%; Rand-Dollar Depreciation – 25%.

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