http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/02/26/was-it-all-just-a-bad-dream-or-ten-lessons-not-learnt/ Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog Sun, 29 Jan 2012 22:06:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/02/26/was-it-all-just-a-bad-dream-or-ten-lessons-not-learnt/comment-page-1/#comment-24629 dblwyo Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:34:59 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/?p=17019#comment-24629 Thanks for this. The level of complacency and mis-reading in the markets and in general is just stunning right now. On a recent Tech Ticker one strategist complains that gov't interference makes it impossible to know what's next. There are two fundamental flaws with that, aside from the obvious one that gov't intervention saved our axxes. It's been helpful to me to think of the mkt/econ interactions on a structural, fundamental, technical and psychological 4-factor basis where the timeframes are very long, long, intermediate/short and very short. We are now in a policy-dependent and -driven environment because things are still so fragile (& therefore turbulent)which means deep structural factors are gyrating on a short-term frequency and will until the system stabilizes. To whine about that is to be blind and complacent. The second thing that goes with all that is that much of gov't policy is as analyzable under it's own logic and rules as anything else that concerns us but, on the whole, market players don't bother and take it for granted. This is a very fragile, exposed and dangerous environment made more so by failure to take and apply Montier's Lessons. <a href="http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2010/01/chaos_turbulence_and_policy_ma.html" rel="nofollow"> Chaos, Turbulence and Policy: Market Lookback, Outlook & Risks</a> , <a href="http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2010/02/policydependence_transitions_a.html" rel="nofollow"> Policy-dependence, Transitions and Turbulence: Market and Economy in the New Normal</a> and <a href="http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2010/02/welcome_to_murphys_world_marke.html" rel="nofollow"> Welcome to Murphy's World: Markets, Economies, Policy & Fragilities </a> for some backup, machinery and guestimates if you like. Thanks for this. The level of complacency and mis-reading in the markets and in general is just stunning right now. On a recent Tech Ticker one strategist complains that gov’t interference makes it impossible to know what’s next. There are two fundamental flaws with that, aside from the obvious one that gov’t intervention saved our axxes. It’s been helpful to me to think of the mkt/econ interactions on a structural, fundamental, technical and psychological 4-factor basis where the timeframes are very long, long, intermediate/short and very short. We are now in a policy-dependent and -driven environment because things are still so fragile (& therefore turbulent)which means deep structural factors are gyrating on a short-term frequency and will until the system stabilizes. To whine about that is to be blind and complacent.
The second thing that goes with all that is that much of gov’t policy is as analyzable under it’s own logic and rules as anything else that concerns us but, on the whole, market players don’t bother and take it for granted. This is a very fragile, exposed and dangerous environment made more so by failure to take and apply Montier’s Lessons.
Chaos, Turbulence and Policy: Market Lookback, Outlook & Risks ,
Policy-dependence, Transitions and Turbulence: Market and Economy in the New Normal and Welcome to Murphy’s World: Markets, Economies, Policy & Fragilities for some backup, machinery and guestimates if you like.

]]>