Picture du Jour: Keep an eye on Chicago Fed Activity Index

 EmailPrint This Post Print This Post

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a US economic indicator that receives less publicity that others, but is worth keeping an eye on. According to the Chicago Fed, “when the three-month moving average of the CFNAI moves above -0.7 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood the recession has ended.”  The three-month moving average of the CFNAI has held above -0.70 since November 2009.

Interestingly, when plotting the Chicago Fed series together with US real GDP growth (courtesy of Agora Financial), the relationship would indicate growth of 3-4% for 2010 – a higher number than that forecast by most economists. I will be paying close attention to the February number due out on March 22.

chicago

Source: Agora Financial’s 5 Minute Forecast, March 2, 2010.

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.

OverSeas Radio Network

Leave a Reply

  

  

  

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Top 100 Financial Blogs

Recent Posts

Charts & Indexes

Gold Price (US$)

Don Coxe’s Weekly Webcast

Podcast – Dow Jones


One minute - every hour - weekdays
(requires Windows Media Player)
newsflashr network
National Debt Clock

Calendar of Posts

Feed the Bull