http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/18/real-gdp-growth-in-the-nascent-stages-of-a-recovery-history-vs-today/ Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog Sun, 29 Jan 2012 22:06:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/18/real-gdp-growth-in-the-nascent-stages-of-a-recovery-history-vs-today/comment-page-1/#comment-34260 Friday notwithstanding, we got more clarification last week and that's good - Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors. Mon, 19 Jul 2010 13:31:42 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/?p=21077#comment-34260 [...] economic recovery in the past four cycles versus today’s rebound (short):    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/18/real-gdp-growth-in-the-nascent-stages-of-a-recovery-hi...    The other side of job losses in the manufacturing area (short):    [...] [...] economic recovery in the past four cycles versus today’s rebound (short):    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/18/real-gdp-growth-in-the-nascent-stages-of-a-recovery-hi…    The other side of job losses in the manufacturing area (short):    [...]

]]> http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/18/real-gdp-growth-in-the-nascent-stages-of-a-recovery-history-vs-today/comment-page-1/#comment-34004 DCS Sun, 18 Jul 2010 14:16:09 +0000 http://www.investmentpostcards.com/?p=21077#comment-34004 The implication of the chart, I suppose, is that growth accelerates because we'll likely follow the paths of the '91 and '01 recoveries inasmuch as we've roughly matched them over the last three quarters? My question is, both of those recoveries were fueled in large part by massive private sector debt accumulation -- the chart of aggregate debt literally went parabolic from 2001 to 2008 -- which is unlikely to happen this time around (private sector credit is actually continuing to contract at a rapid pace) and markets have shown increasing skepticism about funding sovereign debt accumulation, so what exactly is the catalyst that continues to propel us along any sustainable path of GDP growth? The implication of the chart, I suppose, is that growth accelerates because we’ll likely follow the paths of the ’91 and ’01 recoveries inasmuch as we’ve roughly matched them over the last three quarters? My question is, both of those recoveries were fueled in large part by massive private sector debt accumulation — the chart of aggregate debt literally went parabolic from 2001 to 2008 — which is unlikely to happen this time around (private sector credit is actually continuing to contract at a rapid pace) and markets have shown increasing skepticism about funding sovereign debt accumulation, so what exactly is the catalyst that continues to propel us along any sustainable path of GDP growth?

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