US payrolls to surprise on the upside?

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Analysts expect that the US non-farm payrolls to be published later today will show the US economy continued to shed jobs in July. Yes, initial jobless claims published yesterday were up on the week before. Our analysis differs, though. With the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for July out, my GDP-weighted employment PMI (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) indicates that between 50,000 and 100,000 more workers may have found jobs during July. Our analysis concurs with the report from payrolls firm ADP that showed private sector employers hiring 42,000 workers in July.

Sources: ISM; Census Bureau; Plexus Asset Management.

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