ECRI Leading Indicator: Slight improvement in growth

By Prieur du Plessis, on August 11th, 2010 posted in: Economy, US

The ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator (WLI) for the week ended July 30 improved for the third consecutive week while the ardently watched ECRI WLI Smoothed Annualised Growth Rate came in at -10.3% compared to the previous week’s -10.7%.

The marginally improved growth rate can largely be attributed to the improvement of the S&P 500 growth rate from -6.0% to -1.7%.

Sources: ECRI (various internet sources); I-Net; Plexus Asset Management.

The 10-year bond yield aided the ECRI growth rate marginally as the growth rate of the former improved slightly from -30.4% to -29.8%.

Sources: ECRI (various internet sources); I-Net; Plexus Asset Management.

Growth in the ECRI WLI was held back by a further deterioration in growth in initial jobless claims that worsened from -17.6% to -17.8%.

Sources: ECRI (various internet sources); FRED; I-Net; Plexus Asset Management.

Gauge of this week’s ECRI WLI Smoothed Annualised Growth rate based on the week ended 6 August 2010:

Component	Last week 6 August	Previous week 30 July	Momentum
	Smoothed Annualised Growth
S&P 500	-0.7%	-1.7%	Improved
10-year bond yield	-32.0%	-29.8%	Weakened
Initial jobless claims	-16.7%	-17.8%	Improved slightly
*Conclusion*
*ECRI WLI*	*Unchanged/slight improvement*	*-10.3%*

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groenewegen

August 11, 2010 at 3:38 pm

An ECRI van minus 10% together with a decrease in M3 does this not forecast a severe drop of the S&P 500 in the very near future??
What is your opnion?

All the best with your excellent website,
very best regards,
Leo Groenewegen

Kurt Schoeneman

August 12, 2010 at 5:52 am

Is the improvement just the S&P 500? Not good, because that is manipulated, at least in the short term, I think. Technical traders, etc. who rent stocks for a while do not an improvement make.