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“Almost two years after the end of the Great Recession, it remains unclear what the financial crisis has done to the level and the growth rate of potential GDP in the advanced economies. ‘Potential’ is the maximum level of output that could be produced without putting so much pressure on resources that it creates inflation. Uncertainty about potential output translates one-for-one into uncertainty about the output gap – the difference between (observed) actual GDP and (unobserved) potential GDP – which measures the amount of spare capacity, or ‘slack’, in the economy. And, with inflation generally thought to be related to the amount of ‘slack’ in the economy, uncertainty about the output gap translates into uncertainty about the inflation outlook,” said Joachim Fels of Morgan Stanley in this guest contribution. [...] More on this topic (What's this?) Why TIPS are a Bad Inflation Hedge (Learn Mining News, 4/11/11) The Real Inflation Rate is 10% (Learn Mining News, 4/13/11) Inflation Fears: A Sanguine Fed is Underestimating the Escalating Threat (Money Morning, 4/6/11) 
In case you missed my articles during the past week, the six most-read posts published on the Investment Postcards are listed on this post, including the week’s most popular “Laugh out Loud” cartoon [...] More on this topic (What's this?) The Most Telling Chart of 2011 (Wall Street Daily, 12/30/11) The Worst Prediction of 2011 (Wall Street Daily, 12/23/11) Farmland Blows Up in 2011 (Wealth Daily, 12/14/11)
China’s economy is showing real signs of weakening, particularly in real estate, and even could tip into a recession, hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, told CNBC. “The cracks are spreading in the facade. You’re seeing real estate firms shutter, sales offices closed down. Some of the engine behind the boom is at least beginning to sputter,” he said. [...] More on this topic (What's this?) China's Economy 2012 Report: Here's Why (And Where) Your Money Should Be In China (Money Morning, 12/9/11) China: Big Changes Coming Soon (Money Morning, 1/10/12) What China is Buying Now (Wealth Daily, 1/12/12)
The Chinese Shanghai Composite Index has come under pressure over the past month, with a 7.0% decline since its April high compared with declines of 6.1% for emerging markets in general and 4.4% for developed markets. However, it seems that the Index might be finding support around the 2,850 level as it [...] More on this topic (What's this?) China's Economy 2012 Report: Here's Why (And Where) Your Money Should Be In China (Money Morning, 12/9/11) China: Big Changes Coming Soon (Money Morning, 1/10/12) China Screws the World -- Again. (Wealth Daily, 12/1/11)
This week on Wealthtrack, Consuelo Mack sits down with David Herro, Morningstar’s International Stock Fund Manager of the Decade. The contrarian minded manager of three Oakmark International Funds discusses why he is finding value in some of the world’s most challenging markets. [...] |
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By Prieur du Plessis, on May 23rd, 2011 posted in: 
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