July « 2011 « Investment Postcards from Cape Town

Emerging-market equities have underperformed mature-market equities since the start of the year, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index down 1.4% while the MSCI World Index is up 2.04% and the S&P 500 4.6%. This raises the question of whether investors have lost faith in emerging-market equities. Read on for an interesting analysis … […]

Michael Burry under the spotlight

By Prieur du Plessis, on July 21st, 2011 posted in: Investment, Markets, Money

“Bloomberg Risk Takers” profiles Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge. He forecast that the bubble would burst as early as 2007, and he acted on his conviction by betting against subprime mortgages. […]

Platinum price to benefit from strike action in South Africa?

By Prieur du Plessis, on July 21st, 2011 posted in: Investment, Platinum

As wage talks between South African mines and labour have become deadlocked, the mood among mine workers and labour in general is for strikes and I doubt it will be averted. I think we are probably in for a minimum of two to three weeks of strike action, with potentially positive implications for the platinum price. Read on … […]

Grant says U.S, debt crisis contrived, will be “unstuck”

By Prieur du Plessis, on July 21st, 2011 posted in: Investment, Markets, Money

James Grant, publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, talks about negotiations between U.S. lawmakers over raising the federal debt ceiling and reducing the budget deficit. He also discusses the Treasury market, the gold standard and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. […]

ECRI WLI: Growth rate clearly bottoming

By Prieur du Plessis, on July 21st, 2011 posted in: Economy, US

As I said last week, the ECRI WLI smoothed annualized growth rate is at a clear make-or-break stage. The current smoothed annualized growth rate of the ECRI WLI could herald the bottom of the downtrend in the growth rate unless the S&P 500, metal prices and bond yields continue to fall. My simulations indicate that any rise in the above-mentioned constituents will immediately be reflected in improvements in their growth rates and that of the WLI. My bets are on the latter! […]

Face to face with Felix Zulauf on economy, markets

By Prieur du Plessis, on July 21st, 2011 posted in: Investment, Markets, Money

Eric King recently conducted an excellent interview with Felix Zulauf, Founder and President of Zug-based Zulauf Asset Management. He has worked in the financial markets and asset management for almost 40 years, and always believed that the world economy and the financial markets move in cycles. That has helped him avoid all the major casualties in the financial markets since the 1973/74 bear market in equities. […]