Global manufacturing sector down, saved by the U.S.

By Prieur du Plessis, on July 3rd, 2011 posted in: Economy, World

Growth in the global manufacturing industry continued to slow in June. My GDP-weighted manufacturing PMI for the major economies dropped for the fourth consecutive month to 52.8 from 53.1 in May. Out of 19 countries only three experienced faster growth, while the manufacturing sectors in six countries are now contracting.

Due to its weight the jump in the U.S.’s ISM manufacturing PMI to 55.3 from 53.5 in May saved the global manufacturing PMI from a major slide. Australia’s PMI jumped from a contracting 47.7 to 52.9, while Turkey’s PMI jumped by 1.7 points to 52.3. The Eurozone’s PMI slumped to 52.0 from 54.6 in May as growth in the PMI of the two stalwarts, Germany and France, slowed significantly. Germany’s PMI fell by 3.1 points from a robust 57.7 to 54.6 in June, while France’s PMI fell to 52.5 from 54.9. The manufacturing sectors in all of the Eurozone’s problem countries are now contracting, though, with Italy and Ireland following in the footsteps of Greece and Spain.

Although Japan’s PMI weakened to 50.7 from 51.3 in May it still indicates growth in the manufacturing sector after slumping to 45.7 in the aftermath of the country’s twin disasters.

Growth in emerging economies also waned. The manufacturing sectors in Brazil and Taiwan are contracting with the latter faring the worst of all countries, shaving 5 points off May’s relatively robust 54.9. China’s CFLP manufacturing PMI was in line with my earlier expectations based on seasonal weakness.

	Manufacturing PMI		Direction	Rate of Change
Country	June-11	May-11	Direction	Rate of Change
U.S.*****	*55.3*	*53.5*	Growing	Faster
Eurozone*	*52.0*	*54.6*	Growing	Slowed significantly
Germany*	54.6	57.7	Growing	Slowed significantly
France*	52.5	54.9	Growing	Slowed significantly
Greece*	45.5	44.5	Contracting	Slowed
Italy*	49.9	52.8	Contracting	From growing
Spain*	47.3	48.2	Contracting	Deeper
Ireland*	49.8	51.8	Contracting	From growing
*U.K.**	*51.3*	*52.1*	Growing	Slowed
*Japan**	*50.7*	*51.3*	Growing, weak	Slowed
*Australia**	52.9	*47.7*	Growing again	From contracting
*Emerging Economies*
Brazil*	49.0	50.8	Contracting	From growing
China**	50.9	52.0	Growing, weak	Slower
Czech*	55.1	55.9	Growing	Slower
Poland*	51.2	52.6	Growing	Slower
Turkey*	52.3	50.6	Growing	Faster
India*	55.3	57.5	Growing	Slower
Russia*	50.6	50.9	Growing, weak	Slower
Taiwan*	49.9	54.9	Contracting	From growing
RSA***	53.9	55.1	Growing	Slower
S Korea	51.1	51.2	Growing	Slower
Global****	*52.8*	*53.1*	Growing	Slower