Stock market: Will July buck seasonal weakness?
As shown below, Chart of the Day has just produced an interesting chart, indicating the Dow’s average performance for each calendar month since 1950 (blue columns) and 1980 (gray columns) respectively.
The following are a few interesting observations:
• Whether measuring from 1950 or 1980, the average monthly gains are rather similar.
• The average year can be divided into both a strong half (November through April) and weak half (May through October).
• Each one of the semi-annual biases has one calendar month which bucks the trend (February and July).
According to the chart, the stock market is currently in the midst of its subpar half of the year. However, the one calendar month (July) which has tended to buck this trend has arrived.
Source: Chart of the Day, July 1, 2011.