Global PMI roundup (June 2011): Mixed signals

 EmailPrint This Post Print This Post

The June JP Morgan Global Composite PMI, which takes both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing/services into account, dropped to 52.2 from 52.6 in May (a number above 50 indicates expansion).

The slowdown in growth was broad based, with weakness particularly evident in countries in the Eurozone with France leading the way as the country’s Markit composite PMI fell 5.4 points to 54.9 in June from a robust 60.3 in May. Germany’s Markit composite PMI was reasonably resilient, contracting by 0.8 points. The Eurozone’s composite PMI fell to 53.2 from 55.2, with the manufacturing PMI down 2.6 points to 52.0 and the services PMI down 1.7 points to 53.7. The situation in the Eurozone’s debt-ridden countries is worsening, though.

Manufacturing PMIServices PMI
June 2011May 2011

Change

Trend

June 2011May 2011

Change

Trend

Greece45.444.5+0.9ContractingN/AN/AContracting*
Italy49.952.8-2.9Contracting47.450.1-2.7Contracting
Spain47.348.2-0.9Contracting50.250.9-0.7Barely growing
Ireland49.851.8-2.0Contracting52.450.5+1.9Expanding

The contraction in Japan continues to ease, with the Markit composite PMI jumping to 47.6 from 46.2 in May. Growth in the U.S. eased slightly, with my ISM GDP-weighted composite PMI registering 53.8 from 54.3 in May. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs again reversed roles, with the non-manufacturing PMI falling to 53.3 from 54.6 while the manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 from 53.5. My composite PMI for China slumped from 57.9 in May to 54.6 mainly due to seasonal factors as on a seasonally adjusted basis the PMI dropped slightly to 54.6 from 57.9. Elsewhere the composite PMIs for Brazil and Hong Kong retreated rapidly.

Sources: ISM, Markit, CFLP, Plexus Asset Management.

GDP-weighted/ Composite PMIDirection

Rate of change

CountryJune-11May-11
U.S.***53.854.3GrowingSlower
Eurozone****53.255.2GrowingSlowed rapidly
Germany*56.357.1Growing, robustSlower
France*54.960.3GrowingSlowed rapidly
U.K.****53.253.3GrowingSlower
Japan*47.646.2ContractingImproving
Emerging Economies
China**54.657.9GrowingSlowed rapidly
China S/A**54.354.7GrowingSlower
Brazil*51.153.0GrowingSlowed rapidly
India*56.857.7Growing, robustSlower
Russia*53.855.4GrowingSlower
Hong Kong*50.352.2Hardly growingSlowed rapidly
U.A.E.*55.256.0Growing, robustSlower
Saudi Arabia*62.862.6Growing, robustFaster
JP Morgan Global Composite*52.252.6GrowingSlower

Sources: *Markit; **CFLP, Li & Fung, Plexus Asset Management; ***ISM, Plexus Asset Management; ****Markit, Plexus Asset Management.

Growth in the global manufacturing sector eased slightly, with my GDP-weighted manufacturing PMI for the major economies dropping marginally to 52.8 from 31.1 in May.

The turnaround in the U.S.’s manufacturing sector from 53.5 to 55.3 prevented the gauge from dropping severely drop, though. Although growth in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector is continuing, it has softened considerably. Germany’s PMI came in 3.1 points lower following its drop of 4.3 in May. The Eurozone followed its 3.4 index point decline in May by a further drop of 2.6 points to 52.0. The decline in China’s CFLP manufacturing PMI of 1.1 points was in line with my earlier expectations based on seasonal weakness, while on a seasonal basis growth improved marginally. Australia’s manufacturing sector experienced a significant turnaround, with the PMI reversing from a contracting 47.7 to an expanding 52.9. Turkey was the only other country experiencing faster growth in its manufacturing sector.

Manufacturing PMI

Direction

Rate of Change

CountryJune-11May-11
U.S.*****55.353.5GrowingFaster
Eurozone*52.054.6GrowingSlowed significantly
Germany*54.657.7GrowingSlowed significantly
France*52.554.9GrowingSlowed significantly
Greece*45.544.5ContractingImproving
Italy*49.952.8ContractingFrom growing
Spain*47.348.2ContractingFaster
Ireland*49.851.8ContractingFrom growing
U.K.*51.352.1GrowingSlowed
Japan*50.751.3GrowingSlower
Australia*52.947.7GrowingDeeper
Emerging Economies
Brazil*49.050.8ContractingFrom growing
China**50.952.0GrowingSlower
China S/A**52.052.0GrowingUnchanged
Czech*55.155.9Growing, robustSlower
Poland*51.252.6GrowingSlower
Turkey*52.350.6GrowingFaster
India*55.357.5Growing, robustSlower
Russia*50.650.9GrowingSlower
Taiwan*49.954.9ContractingFrom growing
R.S.A***53.955.1GrowingSlower
S Korea51.151.2GrowingSlower
Global****52.853.1GrowingSlower

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.

Non-manufacturing/Services PMIs

The JP Morgan Global Services PMI for June dropped by 0.4 points as the PMI slid to 52.1 from 52.5 in May.

The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI retraced 1.3 index points on top of the 1.8 index point drop in May to a still expanding 53.3. The Eurozone PMI dropped by 1.7 index points after a retreat of 1.3 index points in May to finish at a still expanding 53.7 in June as France in particular came off the boil with the PMI dropping by a massive 6.4 points to 56.1 in June. Growth in the U.K.’s services sector picked up slightly to 53.9 from 53.8 in May. The pace of contraction in Japan’s services sector continued to ease as the PMI rose by 1.6 points to 45.4 in June. The pace of contraction in Australia’s services sector intensified, though.

Sources: ISM, Markit, CFLP, Plexus Asset Management.

Non-manufacturing/ Services PMI

Direction

Rate of Change

CountryJun-11May-11
U.S.**53.354.6GrowingSlower
Eurozone53.755.4GrowingSlower
Germany56.756.1Growing, robustFaster
France56.162.5Growing, robustSlowed rapidly
Italy47.450.1ContractingFrom growing
Spain50.250.9GrowingSlower
Ireland52.450.5GrowingFaster
U.K.53.953.8GrowingFaster
Japan 45.443.8ContractingImproved
Australia 48.549.9ContractingFaster
Emerging Economies
Brazil52.153.3GrowingSlower
China*57.061.9Growing, robustSlowed rapidly
China S/A*57.758.8Growing, robustSlowed
India56.157.7Growing, robustSlower
Russia55.157.6Growing, robustSlower
JP Morgan Global Services

52.1

52.5

Growing

Slower

Sources: Markit; CFLP*; ISM**; Plexus Asset Management.

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.

OverSeas Radio Network

Leave a Reply

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

  

  

  

Top 100 Financial Blogs

Recent Posts

Charts & Indexes

Gold Price (US$)

Don Coxe’s Weekly Webcast

Podcast – Dow Jones


One minute - every hour - weekdays
(requires Windows Media Player)
newsflashr network
National Debt Clock

Calendar of Posts

July 2011
MTWTFSS
« Jun Aug »
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031

Feed the Bull