Technical Talk: Daily update (Wednesday, July 20, 2011)

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Adam Hewison, charting strategist of INO.TV, brings you another edition of his invaluable service of daily technical updates on the ups and downs of various markets. This short analysis is a great tool for keeping one’s finger on the pulse and timing the markets. I have personally been using the INO/Market Club software for about two years and can vouch for these tools being extremely useful.

Click the image lower down to hear Adam’s latest views on gold, silver, the US Dollar Index, the CRB Index, crude oil and the S&P 500 Index. Also, click here to have an instant analysis of any ticker symbol in your portfolio performed by INO.

Here is a summary of his technical outlook:

SP 500 Index:

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level comes in at 1,332.97. I suspect that there will be professional selling between the 1,330 and 1,333 levels should we get to that area. All of our Trade Triangles are positive, indicating that we are in an uptrend. However, the market does show some negatives: the PSAR is negative and the MACD is somewhat mixed. A lower close today in this Index will signal more of a trading range than a trend change. Look for support around the 1,315 area extending down to 1,310.

Silver:

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85

The silver market bounced back dramatically today after almost touching the $38 an ounce level earlier in the day. Currently silver is down about $.40 for the week and we still have the rest of the day and Thursday and Friday to go. Near-term resistance comes in around the $40 level and support is at $38. We are expecting this market to reach its highs towards the latter part of Q3 and early Q4. The intermediate target for silver based on the Fibonacci count of 61.8% is $42.98.

Gold:

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Despite what looked like a sharp pullback for the gold market, gold remains higher for the week. One key level we see in this market right now is $1,580, which should act as support. The next level of support is at $1,566. We continue to like this market from the long side and are looking for gold to move higher until the end of Q3 and possibly into Q4. Intermediate targets for gold are $1,640 and $1,650.

Crude oil:

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65

The crude oil market continues to move in a sideways pattern and this is reflected in our -65 Chart Analysis Score, indicating that a trading range is at hand. Resistance comes in at $99.00 and must be taken out if this market is to move higher. Support has now moved to the center of the Donchian trading channel which comes in around $95.00. Presently the best strategy in this market is to be on the sidelines waiting for the breakout one way or the other. Our Trade Triangle technology indicates that that is going to happen on the downside. We will see.

US Dollar Index:

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 65

The relentless sideways activity in the Dollar Index continues with no real movement either on the upside or the downside. The Index remains below its 200-day moving average. The longer-term trend is positive based on our Trade Triangle technology. Resistance remains between 75.50 and 76.50, with support at 74.00.

CRB Commodity Index:

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55

There is no change in this Index or our analysis for this market. The +55 Chart Analysis Score indicates that this market remains in a trading range in the near term, with our Trade Triangle technology giving a mixed signal. Resistance is between 349 and 350; support at 342.

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Source: INO.TV, July 20, 2011.

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