Global Manufacturing PMI (Sept 2011): U.S. shines in suffering global manufacturing sector

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Growth in the global manufacturing sector is on the brink of contraction. The global manufacturing PMI that I calculate on a GDP-weighted basis for the major economic regions fell to 50.1 in September from 50.4 in August, while the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 from 50.1. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI masks the state of the manufacturing sector elsewhere around the globe, though. The gauge jumped to 51.6 in September, indicating acceleration in growth from a paltry 50.6 in August.

While Germany is still showing signs of growth the recession in the rest of the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector is deepening. However, it seems as if the contraction in Italy is easing somewhat, but France, the second largest economy in the Eurozone, is sliding fast. In contrast, the manufacturing sector in the U.K. has managed to grow again after contracting in August. The cold spell has spread to emerging Europe as well, with Poland leading the way as growth in its manufacturing sector is close to stalling. Turkey was the exception as its manufacturing sector is growing again.

Asian countries are also suffering. China was the major disappointment as the CFLP Manufacturing PMI only managed to rise by an abysmal 0.3 percentage points to 51.2 in a month that is normally a very strong month from a seasonal perspective. The result was that my seasonally adjusted CFLP PMI fell 2.1 percentage points to 50.1 and therefore indicates that growth in China’s manufacturing sector has stagnated. It had a severe ripple effect on the rest of Asia. Growth in India’s manufacturing sector slowed sharply, while the contraction in Taiwan, South Korea and Australia deepened.

Russia and South Africa held up reasonably well in the other BRICS countries but the contraction in Brazil’s manufacturing sector quickened.

 

Manufacturing PMI

 

Direction

 

Rate of Change

CountrySep-11 Aug-11
U.S.*****51.650.6GrowingFaster
Eurozone*48.549.0ContractingFaster
Germany*50.350.9GrowingSlower
France*48.249.1ContractingFaster
Greece*43.243.3ContractingFaster
Italy*48.347.1ContractingSlower
Spain*43.745.3ContractingFaster
Ireland*47.349.7ContractingFaster
U.K.*51.149.0GrowingFrom contracting
Japan*49.351.9 ContractingFrom growing
Australia*42.3 43.3 ContractingFaster
Emerging Economies
Brazil*45.546.0ContractingFaster
China**51.250.9GrowingFaster
China S/A50.152.3GrowingSlower
Czech*52.353.4GrowingSlower
Poland*50.251.8GrowingSlower
Turkey*51.549.8GrowingFrom contracting
India*50.452.6GrowingSlower
Russia*50.049.9StagnatingSlower
Taiwan*44.545.2ContractingFaster
RSA***50.746.7GrowingFrom contracting
S Korea47.549.7ContractingFaster
Global****50.1 50.4 Growing Stagnated

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.

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2 comments to Global Manufacturing PMI (Sept 2011): U.S. shines in suffering global manufacturing sector

  • Aly

    Hi Prieur – I work for a safety equipment manufacturer (gangways, loading ramps and the like) here in Texas (USA) and am always looking to keep up with the goings-on in the industry. A healthy manufacturing industry is vital to the global economy. As a manufacturer, I feel that there is so much potential, so much we could do. Hopefully, we’ll start to see the turning of the tide from our current situation.

    Anyways, thanks for sharing! – Aly

  • I ask clients all the time how business is going, and without a doubt, manufacturing companies are all doing “OK”. Not hiring, not adding shifts, but cautiously optimistic. Housing and construction is down, banks are a bit slow, retail could be better, but manufacturing is holding in there.

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