Unchanged to slightly higher U.S. manufacturing PMI in November?

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Although the manufacturing surveys of the main districts for November are a mixed bag, the surveys on average indicate that growth has stabilised or even accelerated somewhat. The Philadelphia and Kansas City Feds reported continued but slower growth while the New York Fed and Richmond Fed Surveys indicate that the contraction in the manufacturing sector has halted.

Philadelphia FedNY Empire StateRichmond FedKansas City FedAverage of Surveys
Oct 20118,7-8,5-6,08,00,6
Nov 20113,60,60,04,02,1
TrendGrowing slowerFrom contractingContraction stalledGrowing slowerGrowing faster

Sources: Dismal Scientist; Plexus Asset Management.

Sources: Dismal Scientist; Plexus Asset Management.

On balance, it seems to me that the November ISM manufacturing PMI will be unchanged to slightly higher from October’s 50,8. There have been diversions in the past but on average the four surveys indicate that growth in the US manufacturing sector has bottomed … for the moment.

Sources: Dismal Scientist; ISM; Plexus Asset Management.

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