Global PMI Scorecard: Not a pretty picture

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After faltering in October, growth in global economic activity accelerated again in November. The global manufacturing sector remains in recession territory, while growth in the services sector inched ahead after dropping in October.

The JP Morgan Global Composite Index improved to 52.0 after falling to 51.4 in October. The improvement in the composite PMI can virtually be entirely attributed to a significant improvement in business conditions in the U.S.  My GDP-weighted Composite ISM PMI, taking into account the Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index (the basis Markit uses to calculate the composite PMIs) instead of the PMI itself, showed a major improvement to 55.4 from 53.1 in October. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors both experienced accelerated growth.

My calculated GDP-weighted PMI for the Eurozone improved slightly to 47.2 from 46.6 in October as the deepening recession in the manufacturing sector was outweighed by an easing of the contraction in the services sector of the economy. France was a major contributor as a result of a significant easing of the contraction in France’s composite PMI from 45.6 to 48.8 in November. Germany moved from stagnation to contraction, though, while the U.K. managed to eke out slightly faster growth.

In contrast, business conditions in the other major economic regions weakened significantly. Both Japan and China took a turn for the worse in November. Growth in Japan’s services sector ended abruptly, while the manufacturing sector is contracting again. Significant weakness has crept into both economic sectors of China. Business conditions in Hong Kong have worsened again. Conditions in the major emerging economies turned for the better, though. Growth in India is accelerating again after stagnating in October, while growth in Russia is accelerating. Economic activity in Brazil also improved slightly.

GDP-weighted/ Composite PMIDirection 

 

Rate of change

CountryNov-11Oct-11
U.S.***52.252.4GrowingSlower
U.S. BAI***(note 1) 55.453.1GrowingFaster
Eurozone****47.246.6ContractingSlower
Germany*49.450.3ContractingFrom growing
France*48.845.6ContractingSlower
U.K.****50.850.2GrowingFaster
Japan*48.952.4ContractingFrom growing
Emerging Economies
China**49.353.3ContractingFrom growing
China S/A**49.552.2ContractingFrom growing
Brazil*51.551.3GrowingFaster
India*52.350.3GrowingFaster
Russia*54.652.5GrowingFaster
Hong Kong*48.749.0ContractingFaster
UAE*52.553.4GrowingSlower
Saudi Arabia*58.156.7GrowingFaster
JP Morgan Global Composite*  

52.0

 

51.4

 

Growing

 

Faster

Note: ISM Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index used instead of Non-manufacturing PMI.

Sources: *Markit; **CFLP, Li & Fung, Plexus Asset Management; ***ISM, Plexus; ****Markit, Plexus Asset Management.

 

Non-manufacturing/

Services PMI

 

Direction

 

Rate of Change

CountryNov-11Oct-11
U.S.**52.052.9GrowingSlower
U.S. BAI***56.253.8GrowingFaster
Eurozone47.546.4ContractingSlower
Germany50.350.6GrowingStagnating
France49.644.6ContractingMuch slower
Italy45.843.9ContractingSlower
Spain36.841.8ContractingMuch faster
Ireland52.751.5GrowingFaster
U.K.52.151.3GrowingFaster
Japan 49.552.3ContractingFrom growing
Australia 47.748.8ContractingFaster
Emerging Economies
Brazil52.653.6GrowingSlower
China*49.757.7ContractingFrom robust growth
China S/A*51.454.6GrowingSlower
India53.249.1GrowingFrom contracting
Russia54.853.5GrowingFaster
JPMorgan Global Services  

52.6

 

51.8

 

Growing

 

Faster

Sources: Markit; CFLP*; ISM**; US Business Activity Index***; Plexus Asset Management.

 

Manufacturing PMI

 

Direction

 

Rate of Change

CountryNov-11Oct-11
U.S.*****52.750.8GrowingFaster
Eurozone*46.447.1ContractingFaster
Germany*47.949.1ContractingFaster
France*47.348.5ContractingFaster
Greece*40.940.5ContractingSlightly slower
Italy*44.043.3ContractingSlight slower
Spain*43.843.9ContractingSlightly faster
Ireland*48.550.1ContractingFrom growing
U.K.*47.647.4ContractingSlightly slower
Japan*49.150.6ContractingFrom growing
Australia*47.847.4ContractingSlightly slower
Emerging Economies
Brazil*48.746.5ContractingSlower
China**49.050.4ContractingFrom growing
China S/A48.350.6ContractingFrom growing
Czech*48.651.7ContractingFrom growing
Poland*49.551.7ContractingFrom growing
Turkey*52.353.3GrowingSlower
India*51.052.0GrowingSlower
Russia*52.650.4GrowingFaster
Taiwan*43.943.7ContractingSlightly slower
RSA***51.650.5GrowingFaster
S Korea47.148.0ContractingFaster
Global****49.649.5Contracting Slightly slower

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.

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