U.S. recession risk declining, according to betting contracts
The chart below comes courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group and shows the Intrade contract for whether or not the U.S. will go into a recession in 2012. For the contract to pay out, U.S. real GDP would need to be negative for two consecutive quarters. Based on actual bets, the odds of a recession in 2012 are currently at 38.2%, down from a high near 50% at the beginning of October. “Since then, economic indicator data in the U.S. have gotten much better, and the move lower in the contract odds reflects this,”said Bespoke.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group, December 9, 2011.
More on this topic (What's this?)
The Risk In Chasing Performance (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 8/4/15)
Finding Low Risk Dividend Stocks (The DIV-Net, 7/6/15)
LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD! MUST-WATCH VIDEO/MUST-READ LETTER (The Political and Financial Mark..., 3/7/15)