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U.S. recession risk declining, according to betting contracts
The chart below comes courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group and shows the Intrade contract for whether or not the U.S. will go into a recession in 2012. For the contract to pay out, U.S. real GDP would need to be negative for two consecutive quarters. Based on actual bets, the odds of a recession in 2012 are currently at 38.2%, down from a high near 50% at the beginning of October. “Since then, economic indicator data in the U.S. have gotten much better, and the move lower in the contract odds reflects this,”said Bespoke.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group, December 9, 2011. More on this topic (What's this?) The Five Stocks You Have to Own in 2012 (Money Morning, 12/23/11) Gold Price Forecast for the Remainder of 2012 (Investment U, 5/18/12) Chart: 2012’s Fastest Growing Nations Will Be… (Investment U, 1/8/12) Leave a Reply |
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By Prieur du Plessis, on December 10th, 2011 posted in: 
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