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Prieur’s Podcast: Chinese stocks – a glimmer of hope? By Prieur du Plessis, on December 19th, 2011 posted in: China, Investment, Stocks  4 people had their say - chime in!
4 comments to Prieur’s Podcast: Chinese stocks – a glimmer of hope?Leave a Reply |
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Prieur I respect your continued optimism on China, however I think it is becoming painfully obvious that China is in the early stages of one of the biggest housing bubbles in history. The economy is built on construction and as that comes to halt so will the economy. I am afraid you have been slightly behind the call on this one my only advice is to relieve your head from the sand.
On a lighter note I find your updates incredibly useful and genuinely look forward to them so please don’t ban me from your postings.
All the best and merry christmas
@Josh Adams: My view is succinctly summarized by Templeton’s Michael Hasenstab:
“There have been concerns that China might be about to experience a hard landing. Some observers highlight the risk that high rates of investment could result in large non-performing loans and losses in the banking sector. Others highlight the risk that past significant increases in real estate prices might be vulnerable to a sharp correction. Both risks should be monitored; however, Chinese policymakers appear to have the means and the determination to absorb potential losses in the banking sector and provide additional stimulus should the pace of economic activity weaken significantly. Moreover, recent data suggests that policymakers are being successful in cooling off overheating pressure and slowing economic growth to a sustainable and still very strong pace.”
I’ll certainly be keeping a close eye on developments, especially dissecting the PMI data.
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To that I would respond quoting GMO’s Edward Chancellor:
“A blind faith in the competence of the authorities is another typical feature of a classic mania.”