Bob Doll’s 10 predictions for 2012

By Prieur du Plessis, on January 3rd, 2012 posted in: Investment, Markets, Money

Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist of BlackRock, argues that “uncertainty associated with emerging markets growth, upcoming U.S. elections, and the European debt situation in particular, make the forecasting exercise especially precarious.” He nevertheless produced the following predictions for 2012:

1. The European debt crisis begins to ease, even as Europe experiences a recession.
2. The US economy continues to muddle through yet again.
3. Despite slowing growth, China and India contribute more than half of the world’s economic growth.
4. US earnings grow modestly, but fail to exceed estimates for the first time since the Great Recession.
5. Treasury rates rise and quality spreads fall.
6. US equities experience a double-digit percentage return as multiples rise modestly for the first time since the Great Recession.
7. US stocks outperform non-US stocks for the third year in a row.
8. Dividends and buybacks hit a record high.
9. Healthcare and energy outperform utilities and financials.
10. Republicans capture the Senate, retain the House, and defeat President Obama.

Source: BlackRock – Weekly Investment Commentary, December 30, 2011.

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