U.S. recession odds sharply lower

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I keep a close eye on a number of indicators to alert me to the possibility of the U.S. economy falling back into recession. From the PMIs to the yield spread to an economic report diffusion index all seem to indicate that the economy is on safe ground, for the moment. One of the less conventional indicators conveying the same message is Intrade’s contract for whether or not the U.S. will enter a recession this year. As shown below (courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group), the odds have recently dropped dramatically to about 25% – “the lowest level seen since mid-2011 when the European debt malaise started intensifying..

Source: Bespoke Investment Group, January 10, 2012.


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