Global manufacturing sags again in February: U.S. the culprit!

By Prieur du Plessis, on March 5th, 2012 posted in: Economy, Global

After rebounding from contraction in November last year the global manufacturing sector finds itself on the brink of stagnation again. The GDP-weighted manufacturing PMI that I calculate for the major economies fell to 50.8 in February from 51.5 in January, but is still higher than the 50.3 I recorded in December last year.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI’s fall to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in January contributed 0.6 points to the fall in the GDP-weighted PMI. Excluding the U.S., growth in the manufacturing sector in the rest of the world remained basically unchanged.

Although still indicating contraction at 49.0 the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI shows that the manufacturing sector in the region is stabilizing.

Growth in Greater China is accelerating, with my seasonally adjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI up to 51.9 from 51.0 in January, while the manufacturing sector in Taiwan is at long last growing again. The growth outlook in the other BRICS countries has turned for the better, with South Africa’s PMI surging to 57.9 from 43.2 in January while Brazil’s PMI rose to 51.4 from 50.6.

	Manufacturing PMI			Direction	Rate of Change
Country	Feb-12	Jan-12	Dec-11
U.S.*****	*52.4*	*54.1*	*53.1*	Growing	Slower
Eurozone*	*49.0*	*48.8*	*46.9*	Contracting	Slower
Germany*	50.2	51.0	48.4	Stagnating	From growing
France*	50.0	48.5	48.9	Stagnating	From contracting
Greece*	37.7	41.0	42.0	Contracting	Faster
Italy*	47.8	46.8	44.3	Contracting	Slower
Spain*	45.0	45.1	43.7	Contracting	Faster
Ireland*	49.7	48.3	48.6	Contracting	Slower
*U.K.**	*51.2*	*52.0*	*49.7*	Growing	Slower
*Japan**	*50.5*	*50.7*	*50.2*	Growing	Slower
*Australia**	*51.3*	51.6	50.2	Growing	Slower
*Emerging Economies*
Brazil*	51.4	50.6	49.1	Growing	Faster
China**	51.0	50.5	50.3	Growing	Faster
China SA****	51.9	51.0	50.5	Growing	Faster
Czech*	50.5	48.4	49.2	Growing	From contracting
Poland*	50.0	52.2	48.8	Stagnating	From growing
Turkey*	49.6	51.7	52.0	Contracting	From growing
India*	56.6	57.5	54.2	Robust	Slower
Russia*	50.7	50.8	51.6	Growing	Slower
Taiwan*	52.7	48.9	47.1	Growing	From contracting
RSA***	57.9	53.2	49.4	Robust	Faster
Global****	*50.8*	*51.5*	*50.3*	Growing	Slower