Global manufacturing sags again in February: U.S. the culprit!

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After rebounding from contraction in November last year the global manufacturing sector finds itself on the brink of stagnation again. The GDP-weighted manufacturing PMI that I calculate for the major economies fell to 50.8 in February from 51.5 in January, but is still higher than the 50.3 I recorded in December last year.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI’s fall to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in January contributed 0.6 points to the fall in the GDP-weighted PMI. Excluding the U.S., growth in the manufacturing sector in the rest of the world remained basically unchanged.

Although still indicating contraction at 49.0 the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI shows that the manufacturing sector in the region is stabilizing.

Growth in Greater China is accelerating, with my seasonally adjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI up to 51.9 from 51.0 in January, while the manufacturing sector in Taiwan is at long last growing again. The growth outlook in the other BRICS countries has turned for the better, with South Africa’s PMI surging to 57.9 from 43.2 in January while Brazil’s PMI rose to 51.4 from 50.6.

 

Manufacturing PMI

DirectionRate of Change
CountryFeb-12Jan-12Dec-11
U.S.*****52.454.153.1GrowingSlower
Eurozone*49.048.846.9ContractingSlower
Germany*50.251.048.4StagnatingFrom growing
France*50.048.548.9StagnatingFrom contracting
Greece*37.741.042.0ContractingFaster
Italy*47.846.844.3ContractingSlower
Spain*45.045.143.7ContractingFaster
Ireland*49.748.348.6ContractingSlower
U.K.*51.252.049.7GrowingSlower
Japan*50.550.750.2GrowingSlower
Australia*51.3 51.650.2GrowingSlower
Emerging Economies
Brazil*51.450.649.1GrowingFaster
China**51.050.550.3GrowingFaster
China SA****51.951.050.5GrowingFaster
Czech*50.548.449.2GrowingFrom contracting
Poland*50.052.248.8StagnatingFrom growing
Turkey*49.651.752.0ContractingFrom growing
India*56.657.554.2RobustSlower
Russia*50.750.851.6GrowingSlower
Taiwan*52.748.947.1GrowingFrom contracting
RSA***57.953.249.4RobustFaster
Global****50.8 51.550.3GrowingSlower

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Hodings****; ISM*****.

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Holdings****; ISM*****.

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Holdings****; ISM*****.

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