Global PMI Scorecard: Services sector drives acceleration in global growth

By Prieur du Plessis, on March 12th, 2012 posted in: Economy, Global

Growth in global economic activity continued to accelerate for the fourth consecutive month in February. Highlights of the February PMIs are as follows:

The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI increased to 55.5 from 54.5 In January.
The JP Morgan Global Services PMI jumped to a rather robust 56.5 from 55.4 in January.
Growth in the global manufacturing sector slowed markedly, mostly as a result of a sharp slowdown in the U.S.
After stabilizing in January the Eurozone economy is sliding again as the situation in Italy, Spain and Greece has worsened.
Growth in the BRICS countries is accelerating, especially in larger China.
Pockets of robust growth are emerging:
- U.S. non-manufacturing sector
- India’s manufacturing and services sectors
- Brazil’s services sector
- South Africa’s manufacturing sector
- Saudi Arabia’ overall economy.

	GDP-weighted Composite PMI			Direction	Rate of change
Country	Feb-12	Jan-12	Dec-11
U.S.***	*56.2*	*56.2*	*52.7*	Growing	Same
*U.S. BAI(note 1)**	*60.2*	*58.2*	*54.9*	Growing	Faster
Eurozone****	*48.9*	*50.0*	*48.3*	Contracting	From stalling
Germany*	53.2	53.9	51.3	Growing	Slower
France*	50.2	51.2	50.0	Stalling again	Slower
Italy****	45.0	45.3	44.4	Contracting	Faster
Spain****	42.7	45.8	42.5	Contracting	Faster
U.K.****	*53.1*	*54.9*	*52.8*	Growing	Slower
Japan*	*51.2*	*51.1*	*50.1*	Growing	Slightly faster
*Australia*	*47.9*	*51.8*	*49.3*	Contracting	From growing
*Emerging Economies*
China**	50.0	51.5	52.6	Stalling	Slower
China S/A**	54.2	53.1	52.4	Growing	Faster
Brazil*	55.5	53.8	53.2	Growing	Faster
India*	57.8	59.6	54.7	Growing/robust	Slower
Russia*	53.7	54.4	53.5	Growing	Slower
Hong Kong*	52.8	51.9	49.7	Growing	Faster
UAE*	52.0	52.4	51.7	Growing	Slower
Saudi Arabia*	59.6	60.0	57.7	Growing/robust	Slower
JP Morgan Global Composite*	*55.5*	*54.5*	*52.7*	Growing	Faster

Note: ISM Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index used instead of Non-manufacturing PMI
Sources: *Markit; **CFLP, Li & Fung, Plexus Asset Management; ***ISM, Plexus Asset Management; ****Markit, Plexus Asset Management.

	Non-Manufacturing/Services PMI			Direction	Rate of Change
Country	Feb-12	Jan-12	Dec-11
U.S.*****	*57.3*	*56.8*	*52.6*	Growing	Faster
U.S. BAI*****	*62.6*	*59.5*	*55.5*	Growing/robust	Faster
Eurozone*	*48.8*	*50.4*	*48.8*	Contracting	From growing
Germany*	52.8	53.7	52.4	Growing	Slower
France*	50.0	52.3	50.3	Stalling	From growing
Italy*	44.1	44.8	44.5	Contracting	Faster
Spain*	41.9	46.1	42.1	Contracting	Much faster
Ireland*	53.3	48.3	48.4	Growing	From contracting
U.K.*	*53.8*	*56.0*	*54.0*	Growing	Slower
Japan*	*51.2*	*51.0*	*50.4*	Growing	Faster
Australia*	*46.7*	*51.9*	*49.0*	Contracting	From growing
*Emerging Economies*
Brazil*	57.1	55.0	54.8	Growing/Robust	Faster
China**	48.4	52.9	56.0	Contracting	From growing
China S/A	57.6	56.3	55.3	Growing	Faster
India*	56.5	58.0	54.2	Robust	Slower
Russia*	55.3	56.5	53.8	Growing	Slower
*JP Morgan Global Services******	*56.5*	*55.4*	*53.0*	Growing	Faster

Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Asset Management****; ISM*****.

	Manufacturing PMI			Direction	Rate of Change
Country	Feb-12	Jan-12	Dec-11
U.S.*****	*52.4*	*54.1*	*53.1*	Growing	Slower
Eurozone*	*49.0*	*48.8*	*46.9*	Contracting	Slower
Germany*	50.2	51.0	48.4	Stalling	From growing
France*	50.0	48.5	48.9	Stalling	From contracting
Greece*	37.7	41.0	42.0	Contracting	Faster
Italy*	47.8	46.8	44.3	Contracting	Slower
Spain*	45.0	45.1	43.7	Contracting	Faster
Ireland*	49.7	48.3	48.6	Contracting	Slower
U.K.*	*51.2*	*52.0*	*49.7*	Growing	Slower
Japan*	*50.5*	*50.7*	*50.2*	Growing	Slower
Australia*	*51.3*	51.6	50.2	Growing	Slower
*Emerging Economies*
Brazil*	51.4	50.6	49.1	Growing	Faster
China**	51.0	50.5	50.3	Growing	Faster
China SA****	51.9	51.0	50.5	Growing	Faster
Czech*	50.5	48.4	49.2	Growing	From contracting
Poland*	50.0	52.2	48.8	Stalling	From growing
Turkey*	49.6	51.7	52.0	Contracting	From growing
India*	56.6	57.5	54.2	Robust	Slower
Russia*	50.7	50.8	51.6	Growing	Slower
Taiwan*	52.7	48.9	47.1	Growing	From contracting
RSA***	57.9	53.2	49.4	Robust	Faster
Global****	*50.8*	*51.5*	*50.3*	Growing	Slower