Fri 5 Feb 2010
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under Investment, Markets, Money
[3] Comments
I will find myself in Slovenia and Switzerland over the next few days, exploring a few business opportunities.
Blog posting will be slow (and totally absent on a number of days) while I am on the road, but the normal service will be resumed upon my return to Cape Town on February 15.
Meanwhile, be cautious out there!
Wed 3 Feb 2010
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under Economy, Investment
1 Comment
By now we all know that a swing in inventories flattered the growth in U.S. Q4 GDP. The chart below, courtesy of Goldman’s chief US economist Jan Hatzius (via Clusterstock - Chart of the Day), shows the “real” story. It illustrates that the growth in real final demand - basically GDP excluding inventory restocking - is flat and doesn’t live up to past recoveries at all.
“There will be lingering headwinds to growth from the financial meltdown, such as ongoing credit restraint and an upward drift in the personal savings rate. The U.S. economic recovery should be sustained, but it will fall far short of what would normally occur in the wake of a very deep recession,” said BCA Research.
Without stronger demand growth, a V-shaped recovery is not on the cards and the unemployment rate will not start heading south.
Wed 3 Feb 2010
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under China, Investment
No Comments
James Chanos, legendary hedge fund manager and president of Kynikos Associates, makes an appearance to discuss the outlook for China. Chanos’s views on China have been well covered in the media (specifically in The New York Times), as well as Jim Rogers’s response thereto, but in this video you can hear the real story from the horse’s mouth so to speak.
Source: YouTube.com, January 26, 2010.
Wed 3 Feb 2010
Posted by Prieur du Plessis under Gold, Investment
No Comments
Below is the link to a recent speech by John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management, on the outlook for gold bullion (courtesy of GATA).
Embry concludes his address as follows:
“I now firmly believe the chances of gold ever trading below $1,000 per ounce are remote. The only caveat I would offer is that if the world suffered a catastrophic deflationary collapse, gold could briefly be swept under but would then re-emerge with even greater relative strength as the only true safe haven. However, in a world of pure fiat currency, I think a near-term deflationary outcome is highly unlikely. In fact, I strongly suspect gold is going to stage a parabolic rise from current levels in the not-too-distant future, a development that will come as a shock to the many detractors of the world’s only real money.
“Gold is the only real money because it isn’t someone else’s liability.
“This remains one of the best supply-demand imbalance stories I have encountered in my long career and it will only be enhanced by the existence of massive short positions that will be impossible to cover amid myriad paper claims on gold that dwarf the physical supply, which, by the way, is a subject for another day.”
Click here to read Embry’s interesting and educational speech.
Source: GATA, February 29, 2010.
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| Current call: February 05, 2010 |
![[Most Recent Charts from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_4.gif)
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