Prieur du Plessis » Investment Postcards from Cape Town

Author Archive

Saturday, July 5th, 2008

Market Fundamentals are Appalling

A fascinating discussion a few weeks ago in welling@weeden with Albert Edwards and James Montier of Société Générale is republished in this post. They are, in a word, skeptics, and at this juncture most deeply skeptical of any and all notions that “the worst is over”. The recession, which has barely begun, is more likely to be deep than shallow, market valuations are hideously expensive and the “flation” policymakers should be worried about starts with de-, not in-.

1 Comment » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Saturday, July 5th, 2008

Words from the Wise: Gone Fishing (in Switzerland)

I find myself in the Swiss Alps this weekend, spending a few days with my family in the picturesque village of Veysonnaz. While tranquillity reigns and the family delights in having my attention for a change, the bad news for readers is that “Words from the Wise” is taking a break this Sunday.

No Comments » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Saturday, July 5th, 2008

Michael Lewis: Rules to Keep Your Skin in Wall Street Massacre

With the outlook for the economy and financial markets rather gloomy, it is good sometimes to reflect on matters from a different perspective. In this post author Michael Lewis shares with us, in a humorous manner, his ideas on how we can survive the current mess.

1 Comment » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008

Buy cheap, sell expensive

By Jeremy Gardiner
The second quarter of 2008 continued along a theme that is becoming all too familiar and is a trend that has now been in place for seven years. Simply put, if you weren’t in commodities, you didn’t make any money. In fact, you probably lost money.
The resources-heavy JSE All Share Index is maintaining […]

No Comments » - Posted in South Africa by Prieur du Plessis

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008

Round-table Discussion: How to Prevent the Next Bubble

“The financial crisis has shown that markets are bubble-prone and that laissez-faire regulation doesn’t work. The authorities need to get a grip if we are to avoid a mega-bubble. But we may need an even deeper crisis for that to happen.” That is the conclusion of a fascinating round-table discussion just published by Prospect magazine.

1 Comment » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008

Explaining the poor performance of the rand

By Kevin Lings
In the first six months of 2008, the rand exchange rate weakened by 12.6% against the dollar. This makes the rand one of the worst-performing currencies in the world for the year to date. In fact, looking at a list of the 22 most important emerging markets in the world (see attached chart), […]

No Comments » - Posted in South Africa by Prieur du Plessis

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008

Consumer confidence gives the ghost

By Cees Bruggemans
What took four years to build up during 2004-2007 was wiped out in a matter of six months in 1H2008. It is a dubious achievement indeed.
FNB/BER consumer confidence dropped to a level of -6 in 2Q2008 compared to +12 in 1Q2008 and +22 in 4Q2007. That’s a cumulative drop of 28 points.
This […]

No Comments » - Posted in South Africa by Prieur du Plessis

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008

Stock Market Performance Round-up: Nowhere to Hide

I have put together a table of global stock markets’ performance over various measurement periods. The numbers speak for themselves and can best be summarized in a single sentence: “Nowhere to hide.”

2 Comments » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment by Prieur du Plessis

Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008

Government Bonds: Not So Vigilant

Although rising bond yields have been given a reprieve as a result of the deteriorating outlook for economic growth and commensurate safe-haven buying, I maintain that the medium-term outlook remains negative owing to valuation levels still being stretched, especially in the light of mounting inflationary pressures.

4 Comments » - Posted in Money, Markets, Investment, Bonds by Prieur du Plessis

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

SA Purchasing Managers Index Hits Headwind

By Andre Roux
June witnessed a 5.3 index point decline in the seasonally adjusted Investec PMI to 43.8 from 49.1 in May, indicative of continued pressure on the manufacturing sector.
The seasonally adjusted business activity index dropped to 38.7 (lower than readings posted in 2003 when the sector was in a recession) pointing towards a sizeable contraction […]