By Prieur du Plessis, on October 14th, 2011 posted in: BRICS, Geopolitical Leave your comment

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This post is a guest contribution by Dian Chu, market analyst, trader and author of the EconMatters blog.

BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are among the highest risk regions to have armed conflicts based on the third annual Conflict Intensity Index, an annual study evaluating the intensity of armed conflict across 197 nations, released by risk analysis company Maplecroft.

On the country level, the study rates 12 countries as ‘extreme risk’:

• Libya and Syria, which are ranked joint 1st
• Afghanistan
• Cote d’Ivoire
• Iraq, Pakistan
• South Sudan
• At equal 8th are Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen
• Egypt
• India

Region-wise, three years data from Maplecroft show MENA (Middle East and North Africa), Central Africa, Indian subcontinent most at risk. BRIC countries are also at ‘high’ and ‘extreme risk’ Nevertheless, significant opportunities could also exist for businesses, and investors, if those risks are properly managed.

BRICs

Among the four BRIC countries, India is ranked 11 and ‘extreme risk’ for conflict intensity, while Russia (13) and China (29) are both rated ‘high risk.’ Maplecroft noted that protracted insurgencies and terrorist threats within these countries continue to present challenges to the business environment. Conflict, however, poses less of a risk in Brazil (60), which is rated ‘medium risk.’ According to the study:

India, the highest ranked of the BRICs countries, faces significant risks from Islamist terrorism. A particular source of concern is Lashkar-e-Taiba, a pan-Islamist terrorist group that desires the creation of a “caliphate” across the Indian subcontinent and the withdrawal of India from Kashmir. Lashkar-e-Taiba continues to launch attacks in Kashmir and India and is one of several groups suspected of the 13 July 2011 Mumbai bombings that killed at least 26. India is also enduring a 45-year-long Maoist insurgency from ‘Naxalite’ militants in the east of the country whose aim is to overthrow the current political system.

Shochwaves Of Arab Spring

The shockwaves from the Arab Spring have propelled Egypt, Libya and Syria into the most severe risk category.

Maplecroft notes that generally, North Africa has witnessed an increase in its risk profile over the past three years reflecting the Arab Spring shockwave contagion across the region. Egypt, for instance, just had the Black Sunday on Oct. 9, and the 2011 Egyptian revolution has resulted in significant loss of life with over 800 people estimated killed in the violence.

Continue reading Countries most likely to have armed riots