Warren Buffett’s luckiest day

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This post features a short, rarely seen video of Warren Buffett, describing “the luckiest day” of his life, courtesy of MoneyNews.

As Buffett says in the video, his luckiest day came when he was just 19 years old and he, by chance, picked up a book entitled The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.

In the video below, Buffett describes his admiration for Graham and the life lessons he discovered through their friendship of 45 years (and how you can apply them toward your own financial future).

Source: MoneyNews, March 29, 2010.

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Mobius – Building blocks for good investing

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The post below is a guest contribution by Mark Mobius, Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets guru.

One of my blog readers is a young university graduate from Hong Kong, who wants to pursue finance and investment as a career. He asked me: “What should I do if I really really want to work in the financial industry? What are the most essential qualities for a young man to succeed in the financial world? Do you have any advice?”

In emerging markets investment, I believe it is necessary to be optimistic. While one can certainly learn numerous technical skills that help in making investments or managing a portfolio, a large percentage of investing is still psychological. Both buyers and sellers act on a combination of instinct, information and logic. The development of certain personal characteristics could play a key role in contributing to your investment success.

Hard work and discipline
Someone asked me once if I could condense into five words the most important qualities needed for a good investor and I replied: “Motivation, humility, hard work and discipline.” It stands to reason that the more time and effort that is put into researching investments, the more knowledge that will be gained and wiser decisions made.

Humility
Humility is needed so you are able and willing to ask questions. If you think you know all the answers you probably don’t even know the questions. As Sir John Templeton once said, “If we become increasingly humble about how little we know, we may be more eager to search.”

Common sense
To me, common sense is most important when making investment decisions, since the words “common sense” imply the clarity and simplification required to successfully integrate all the complex information with which investors are faced.

Creativity
I think a significant amount of creativity is required for successful investing, since it is necessary to look at investments from a multifaceted approach, considering all the variables that could negatively or positively affect an investment. Also, creative thinking is required to look forward to the future and try to forecast the outcome of current business plans.

Independence
A number of successful investors have commented on the importance of independent and individual decision-making. If one buys the same securities as everybody else, one ends up with the same results as others. In my opinion, it is impossible to produce superior results unless one does something different from the majority.

Flexibility
It is important for investors to be flexible and not permanently adopt a particular type of asset. I think the best approach is to migrate from the popular to the unpopular securities or sectors. Flexibility is also an attribute that keeps one from holding on to a stock out of loyalty – flexibility allows one to change as times change and as new opportunities present themselves.

These are the key personal qualities that I’ve identified as affecting investment-making decisions. If you can adopt and integrate these investment approaches into your decision-making process, I believe you could significantly improve your chances of success in investing, especially in emerging markets. I’ll leave you with a quote from Sir John Templeton, from whom I learned so much about investing: “Tell your readers to use it or lose it. If you don’t use your muscles, they get weak. If you don’t use your mind, it begins to fail.”

Source: Mark Mobius, Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets, February 18, 2010.

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Prieur’s readings (December 30, 2009)

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Niall Ferguson (The Financial Times): The decade the world tilted east, December 27, 2009.
If we can come up with a good explanation for the west’s past ascendancy, can we then offer a prognosis for its future? Put differently, are we living through the end of the domination of the world by the civilisation that arose in western Europe in the wake of the Renaissance and Reformation – the civilisation that, propelled by the scientific revolution and the Enlightenment, spread across the Atlantic and as far as the Antipodes, finally reaching its apogee in the age of industry and empire?

• Joel Kotkin (New Geography): Don’t give up on the US, December 29, 2009.
If the US were a stock, it would be trading at historic lows. The budget deficit is out of control, the economy is anemic and the political system is controlled by academic ideologues and Chicago hacks. Opposing them is a force largely comprised of know-nothings – to call them Neanderthals would be too complimentary. Yet, in spite of everything, I would still place my long-term bets on the US.

• Martin Wolf (Financial Times): The challenges of managing our post-crisis world, December 29, 2009.
The underpinnings of our global economy and so of our globalised civilisation remain dangerously fragile. Somehow, we must manage to sustain a dynamic global economy, promote development, deliver environmental sustainability and ensure peaceful and co-operative international relations.

• John Tamny (Forbes): Stimulating by saving, December 28, 2009.
In his essential book The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith observed that “Capitals are increased by parsimony, and diminished by prodigality and misconduct.” Or, put more simply, self-interested savers are an economy’s ultimate benefactor.

• Robert Reich (Los Angeles Times): Wall Street bailout – the great sideshow of 2009, December 27, 2009.
The problem is and was Main Street, in the real economy. Why? Because nearly all the gains of economic growth have for years been going to a relatively small number of people at the top. As long as income and wealth keep concentrating at the top, and the great divide between America’s have-mores and have-lesses continues to widen, the Great Recession won’t end — at least not in the real economy.

• Hugo Lindgren (New York Magazine): Let the good times roll, December 27, 2009.
Might the recovery be more robust than widely expected? Wall Street’s most respected pessimist, James Grant, thinks so.

• Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein (Forbes): Bulls on parade, December 29, 2009.
What a difference a year makes. At this time last year, when many thought the whole economic and financial world was falling apart, we forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rally and recover to 11,000 by the end of 2009. As it stands now, it looks like the market is going to fall a bit short of our expectations, but not by much.

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Charles Kirk: 10 Powerful Trading Rules

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This post is a guest contribution by Charles Kirk, author of the popular The Kirk Report.

I’m always looking for ways to improve my trading and, in recent years, I’ve been reading more on applied sports psychology. The reason? The principles offered by many of those who study sports psychology can be applied directly to trading.

Dr. Bob Rotella is a famous sport psychologist for professional golfers (including Padraig Harrington). Recently he wrote an interesting article in Golf Digest offering 10 Rules to help golfers achieve better performance. The concepts outlined there are as helpful to a golfer looking to win as it is to a trader looking to achieve peak performance in the market. To see what I mean – let’s review each of Bob’s 10 rules and my own interpretation of Bob’s comments as they relate directly to trading:

Rule 1: Believe you can win. If other traders can do well in the market, so can you. However, if you don’t have enough courage and confidence in yourself, you will never achieve success. The events over the past year have tested many people in this regard and some now think the game is rigged against them. Nothing could be farther from the truth as opportunities remain. Those who will win in the markets first start by believing they can do it. Then they back up that strong belief with serious hard-work and determination to find their trading edge. However, it starts with you first having faith in yourself.

Rule 2: Don’t be seduced by results. You must stay in the present and focused on executing each trade to the best of your ability. Don’t let yourself think about how much you’re going to win (or lose) in the market or how great of a trader you are or not, but instead focus on what matters most – each and every trade you make. Do that and the results will take care of themselves.

Rule 3: Sulking won’t get you anything. The worst thing you can do for your prospects of winning is to get down when things don’t go well. If you start feeling sorry for yourself or thinking the trading gods are conspiring against you, you’re not focused on the next trade. Good traders readily accept their mistakes and move on to the next trade. They don’t let one bad trade carry onto the next one.

Rule 4: Beat them with patience. Every time you have the urge to make an aggressive trade, go with the more conservative one. You’ll always be OK. The moment you get impatient, bad things happen. In tough markets, stay patient and let others beat themselves.

Rule 5: Ignore unsolicited advice. You’ll have lots of well-meaning friends and experts who want to give you advice. Don’t accept it. In fact, stop them before they can say a word. Their comments will creep into your mind when you are trading and conflict with your own strategy. If you’ve worked on your game, commit to the plan and stay confident with it.

Rule 6: Embrace your personality. The key is to find what works best for you. There are many approaches out there, but there is only one trading approach that will utilize your best skills and talent to create and sustain an edge. The worst mistake you can make is to simply embrace a strategy of someone else that doesn’t match your own personality and strengths.

Rule 7: Have a routine to lean on. Every trader should follow a mental routine on every trade. It keeps you focused on what you have to do, and when the pressure is on, it helps you manage your nerves. You may not have control over the market, but you have control on how you trade the market. Having a routine will inject consistency that will keep you calm under pressure.

Rule 8: Find peace in the market. The market has to be your sanctuary, the thing you love, and you can’t be afraid of making mistakes. Yes, you’ll experience both good and bad times, but you must enjoy and revel in the challenge.

Rule 9: Test yourself. Don’t look for easy trades and setups at all times. Test yourself by working hard trades and difficult markets in order to test and improve your skills. For example, if you’re uncomfortable with trading options, spend a month just trading options. If you’re uncomfortable with shorting stocks, spend a month shorting stocks. We only get better if we constantly test what we think is most difficult.

Rule 10: Find someone who believes in you. Having confidence in yourself is important, but it helps to have someone who believes in you, too, whether it’s a spouse, a friend, a teacher, or a mentor. No man’s success can be entirely attributed to his own actions. You must surround yourself with people who believe in you at all times.

This is a powerful set of trading rules that will serve you well.

Source: Charles Kirk, The Kirk Report, August 17, 2009.

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Investment lessons from baseball

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How does the game of investing compare with the game of baseball? How can one improve performance in one by studying the other? In this video clip, John Authers, FT’s Investment Editor, looks at the career of Kevin Youkilis and draw lessons for investment management.

Click on the image below to view the video.

23-may-bb1

Click here for the article.

Source: John Authers, Financial Times, May 22, 2009.

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More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Investment, Clip, Mexan at Wikinvest
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Jeremy Grantham: How Low is Low?

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27-oct-1b.jpgI published the first part of Jeremy Grantham’s latest newsletter, “Reaping the Whirlwind”, on this site a week ago. The second part of the report, “Silver Linings and Lessons Learned”, has also now been published.

Here is an excerpt from the report by the chairman of Boston-based GMO:

“When asked by Barron’s on October 13 if we would learn anything from this ongoing crisis, I answered, ‘We will learn an enormous amount in a very short time, quite a bit in the medium term, and absolutely nothing in the long term. That would be the historical precedent.’

“That is unfortunately likely to be the case. But over the next several years at least, there are many silver linings and valuable lessons to be learned.

“Chief among the many benefits of this crisis are unprecedented opportunities for investing in some fixed income areas where some spreads are so wide as to reflect severe market dysfunctionality.

“As of October 18, we also have moderately cheap US and global equities for the first time in 20 years. Probably quite soon, global equities too will offer exceptional opportunities after the additional pain that is likely to occur in the next year.

“We are reconciled to buying too soon, but we recognize that our fair value estimate of 975 on the S&P 500 is, from historical precedent, likely to overrun on the downside by 20% to 40%, giving a range of 585 to 780 on the S&P as a probable low.

“The world faces unavoidable declines in economic activity and profit margins, so this overrun is unlikely to be much less painful than average, although you never know your luck.”

Click here for the full report on Grantham’s comments on lessons learned from the credit crisis, as well as his proposed strategy.

Source: Jeremy Grantham, GMO, October 2008.

 

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