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On this week’s WealthTrack, Consuelo Mack interviews Robert Kessler, a contrarian who has been proven right over the last decade. He explains why, after 40 years of outperforming the stock market, much vilified U.S. Treasury bonds will continue to be the safe haven investment for the foreseeable future. Source: Wealthtrack, December 30, 2011. More on this topic (What's this?) 6 Stocks that Outperformed the Dow in 2011 (Wealth Daily, 1/3/12) The Most Telling Chart of 2011 (Wall Street Daily, 12/30/11) 2011 Predictions Recap (Wealth Daily, 12/27/11) 
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, talks on Bloomberg Television about global financial markets and investment strategy. Source: Bloomberg, August 19, 2011.
Tony Crescenzi, market strategist and portfolio manager at Pimco, talks about the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and the impact on Treasury yields. He also discusses investment strategy and the outlook for the European debt crisis.
Treasuries are the most overvalued bond in the universe, Pimco’s Bill Gross tells CNBC’s Larry Kudlow. Source: CNBC, June 9, 2011.
This post is a guest contribution by Asha Bangalore, vice president and economist at The Northern Trust Company. The 10-year Treasury note yield has climbed from a recent low of 2.41% (October 6-8, 2010) to 3.27% as of this writing. The 86 bps increase in yield in a short span reflects the market’s assessment of likely improvements in economic conditions during the months ahead and the impact of a projected increase in supply of Treasury debt as a result of the compromise tax deal President Obama announced yesterday. The bullish outlook the Treasury market is embracing is partly overdone given the significant weakness in hiring and the headwinds from the housing market that are worrisome sectors the Fed is watching closely. Back-to-back robust monthly gains in payrolls and a sustained increase in home sales will be necessary to validate the current market perception of future economic conditions. Between March and October of 2010, the 10-year Treasury note yield declined from 4.0% to 2.41% (see Chart 1), only to reverse it in a brief period.
Consistent with this movement, inflation expectations have also advanced 74 bps since the recent low of 149 bps on August 24, 2010 (see Chart 2).
Speaking about the housing market, the Mortgage Purchase Index of the Mortgage Bankers Association rose slightly to 210.9 for the week ended December 3 from 207.2 in the prior week. This index has risen for three consecutive weeks, implying a likely gain in home sales during November.
Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust, Daily Global Commentary, December 8, 2010.
Despite the rally in Treasuries, Peter Fisher, who oversees $1 trillion in fixed income for Blackrock, says it’s not time just yet to talk of a bubble. In an interview with Henny Sender, FT’s International Financial Correspondent, Fisher also discusses possible defaults in the muni market, the right direction for fiscal policy and the prospects for Europe. Click here or on the image below to view the clip.
Fisher also played long-short – click here. Source: Financial Times, August 1, 2010. More on this topic (What's this?) BlackRock Purchase of Claymore ETFs - Do the Smart Thing Please! (Canadian Financial DIY, 1/12/12) 5 Stocks Seeing Big Analyst Downgrades (Investment Underground » Page n..., 1/6/12) Exclusive [INFOGRAPH] Interesting Facts About BlackRock (ValueWalk.com, 1/10/12) |
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By Prieur du Plessis, on January 2nd, 2012 posted in: 
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ECRI Leading Indicator: Turning for the better?
Roach on U.S. economy, Fed policy, China, Europe
Prieur’s Readings (Jan 30, 2012)
European choices
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