Goldman’s O’Neill says China growth is “most important” in world

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Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, talks about the growth outlook for China and the impact on the global economy. He also discusses the European sovereign debt turmoil and currency markets.

Source: Bloomberg, January 17, 2012.

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Roach sees “relatively contained” recession in Europe

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Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, talks about the European debt crisis, its implications for Asian economies, and the outlook for the People’s Bank of China monetary policy.

Source: Bloomberg, January 12, 2012.

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Goldman’s Zhu expects Chinese stocks to rise by 30% in 2012

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Helen Zhu, chief China equity strategist of Goldman Sachs, talks about the outlook for the nation’s stocks and economy, and investment strategy.

Source: Bloomberg, January 11, 2012.

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Goldman Sachs’s Ha says China doesn’t need rate cuts

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Ha Jiming, Goldman Sachs’s vice chairman for China, talks about the outlook for China’s monetary policy and economy.

Source: Bloomberg, January 9, 2012.

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Chinese, Russian equities attractive

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Philip Poole, head of investment strategy at HSBC Global Asset Management, talks about the outlook for emerging equity markets and his investment strategy.

Source: Bloomberg, January 4, 2011.

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What’s up with the Chinese economy?

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The GDP-weighted Composite CFLP PMI that I calculate for China rebounded strongly to 52.6 in December from 49.3 in November. Much of the rebound can be attributed to seasonal factors, though.

While November is normally a weak month from a seasonal point of view the recent extreme weakness is noteworthy and cast serious doubt on the health of the Chinese economy. The strong rebound in December’s seasonally-adjusted Composite PMI (my calculation) to 52.4 from 49.5 in November allayed some of my fears of a possible further deepening of the growth recession in China.

Much of the rebound in the Composite PMI can be attributed to a surge in the CFLP Non-manufacturing PMI to 56.0 from 49.7 in November.

After adjusting for seasonality the CFLP Non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.2 from an extremely weak 51.4 in November.

The slump in the seasonally-adjusted non-manufacturing PMI in November was an extension of the weakness that set in since March 2010. The slump in consumer confidence was probably the main driving factor behind the weakness in November.

Continue reading What’s up with the Chinese economy?

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